Market BackgroundThe U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, both lower than the previous value and market expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased and market expectations of a Fed rate cut have strengthened. Nonetheless, the Fed chose to stay put at the June FOMC meeting, but the dot plot shows that Fed officials expect the number of rate cuts to be reduced from three to one this year. This hawkish signal to some extent dampened the market's expectations of rate cuts.Trend Analysis of U.S. Treasury Yields?The measurement of U.S. bond rates should not only take into account traditional interest rate expectations and term premiums, but also focus on the equilibrium relationship between the cost of financing and the return on

$Target(TGT)$ stock rise nearly 18% after its earnings report? I believe it was to some extent a catch-up rise. Twenty-three years ago, TGT suffered a more severe decline in the first two quarters than its peers $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ and $Costco(COST)$,mainly due to its own poor operations, cost control, inventory backlog, which dragged down several quarters. In addition, the "zero-dollar buy" activity in some regions of the United States also caused some losses. Therefore, the market did not have high expectations for Q3 performance, but the consensus was that it "will slowly improve." The fact is that TGT's Q3 improvement exceeded expectations, so the market also "boug

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Daily Chart: ImagePrice closed with an indecision candle in the medium of a narrow volume gap between (1) and (2). Both pathways apply in the very short term, as mentioned during the weekend, straight lines up are not expected. If CPI reaction is bearish, there are several support areas, the strongest one is the 10DMA. If the reaction is bullish, the volume base marked as (1) is strong enough to sustain price if reached. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ ,

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The NASDAQ daily index entered the Bullish zone seven days ago, signaling the initiation of an upward trend. However, in recent times, it has displayed a corrective trend. Since last Friday, there has been a notable surge in a robust upward momentum attempting to re-enter the bullish trend. Nevertheless, the current state of the market indicates that the buying strength is significantly weak for a complete transition into an upward trend. Additionally, looking at the projected trend, it appears challenging for the market to shift back into a bullish trend.As we approach mid-November this week, there is a noticeable weakening in buying strength compared to previous weeks, and even if a strong uptrend emerg

As the financial markets brace themselves for the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the atmosphere is one of cautious optimism. A tentative start to the week suggests that investors are holding their breath, reluctant to make significant moves until the crucial inflation figures are unveiled. All eyes are on the US CPI data, with expectations set for the headline annual inflation to dip further to 3.3% in October. However, core annual inflation is anticipated to remain resilient at 4.1%, mirroring the figures from September. Monthly projections indicate a slight uptick, with headline inflation expected to increase by 0.1% and core inflation by 0.3%. While this trajectory aligns with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, there lingers a possibility that inflation may prove m

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ What a wild ride!lets go panda GIF by DreamWorks AnimationLooking at the companies' guidances, oil&gas prices, and retail sales, I cannot imagine the CPI aligning with the consensus. However, just like a new "calculation method", there's another good old bureaucracy trick called 'revision'. Given that the geopolitical macro has certainly improved in recent days, I would say that shorting the current market is far riskier than just holding good stocks.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Wolf Of Wall Street Laugh GIFI dont think govt shutdown is happening. However thats the only catalyst that can take the market down as CPI is very likely to continue downtrend after 2-3 months of inline expectations. I woud expect cpi to continue falling further as oil is down in last 30 days as well. 1 more quarter of ups and down i wud say - we r in a new bull market unless another war starts elsewhere, which we have no control about. Keeping a cash on sidelines to buy on unexpected events such as govt shutdown, war etc.

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ ImageThe notion high CPI=higher rates=bad for markets. But the message the Fed sends is clear that it hasn’t made a decision until it has. And even a surprise drop in CPI isn’t necessarily good… if prices are falling because of poor demand then isn’t that also bad for the economy? I feel like we’re all wrapped around this concept that fed rates are the enemy of the market when they’re more of a derivative of the economy itself. Like if CPI plummets and we end in a recession the rates come dow

Background Been doing price analysis for some years now and it still marvels me on how market makers always moves price action to a level where it is setup for a break above or below from an event! Since the bear trap laid on 9 Nov, price action has moved into a bull flag with liquidity building and also from weekend analysis, price action is coming to resistance and confluence with key levels too Bullish scenario - A good CPI reaction will bring about a break of 441 and head towards 445 Bearish scenario - A bad CPI reaction will play out the topping of the price action and bring about the further formation of an inverse Cup, possibly leading to a handle at the cup formation of 437 (MA5 on Daily Chart) and handle forming down to 432 (MA50 on Daily Chart) and below. For any bullish play

I want to share some my views on macro economy.Fixed Income:  $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2311(10Ymain)$ Gov't bond auctions demand is slowing, higher deficit indicates future bond offerings, thus increasing future supply and increasing present yield. Geopolitical events keeping bonds lower, for now. Victory over inflation not done, fed will hike if needed.Equities:  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Equities have weaker outlook. Risk-free rate brings many valuations down. Future earnings have peaked before, and will cause future stock prices to decline. Companies have maintained or lower growth expectations. Financing cost