Monthly Recap: After Best Nov. in 40 Years, Seize Santa Rally?

TigerObserver
2023-12-01

Led by the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$, all major U.S. stock indexes have risen almost continuously over the past month - with gains generally as high as about 8-10% in November.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 8.9% in November, the 18th biggest monthly advance since 1950. and this was the 10th-best month for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in nearly 40 years.

A review of some of the reasons for the rise in U.S. stocks in November:

1.Macro interest rate environment easing

The market is optimistic that interest rates have peaked and the Federal Reserve will shift to easing policies. Indicators such as the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ and U.S. bond yields pulled back significantly in November. The U.S. dollar fell 3% in November, its largest monthly decline since November 2022. From a technical perspective, the index is currently under pressure below the 200-day moving average.

In the past November, global investors wildly raised the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds, agency bonds and mortgage bonds, and the Bloomberg U.S. Bond Composite Return Index recorded its best monthly performance since May 1985.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," fell by 60 basis points in November, completely away from the 5% mark hit in October.

2. Institutions adding risk asset positions

November typically kicks off the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's best 6 months of the year, typically because companies and pension plans start buying stocks on November 1. Coupled with macro factors, the amount of institutions betting on U.S. stock risk assets continues to rise.

Global bond and stock market capitalization increased by more than $11 trillion combined in November, the second-largest monthly increase on record - second only to the $12.5 trillion increase in November 2020...

3.November's gains benefited from improved Q3 earnings

Throughout November, a large number of companies still announced better-than-expected financial report data. As of November 30, 82% of companies had announced EPS that exceeded expectations. The market rewarded the most top 20 winners in November (see the list below)

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Sectors Performance:

All sectors rose across the board, with the top three gainers being the technology, real estate and consumer cyclical industries. The healthcare, consumer defensive and energy sectors were the lowest gainers.

Data source:https://finviz.com/

The price increases of star stocks in relevant sectors are as follows:

Data source:https://finviz.com/

In addition to the large-cap blue-chip stocks circled above, the stocks that have increased by more than 20% are as follows.( More than half of them have seen their stock prices rise sharply after releasing post-earnings data in November:)

Other market data in November:

  • Bitcoin has now risen for the third consecutive month, with prices back above $38,000.

  • $Gold - main 2402(GCmain)$ have also risen for the second consecutive month and are very likely to attack the historical highs set in May.

  • In addition, $Silver - main 2403(SImain)$ has also soared above the $25 mark.

Outlook for December:

As time enters December, how will 2023 end?

Looking at the historical data: December is one of the most interesting months in terms of stock market seasonality. The chart below summarizes the monthly returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ since 1950. December is a historically strong month for stocks, ranking second behind April for average returns and first for positive returns.

But consider the big November gains: Since 1950, when the broad market index has risen more than 5% in November (13 times). The average loss in the first half of December was more than 1%, and only 46% of returns were positive. The second half of the month outperformed the usual strong returns, with an average gain of 1.68%, with 85% of returns being positive.

Based on this, investors are better off waiting a few weeks to take advantage of the Christmas Rally.

Generally speaking, as Wall Street traders take the holidays to spend time with their families, the market will be thinner in late December, and the result of reduced volatility will be a year-end rally, commonly known as the Santa Claus rally.

Finally, let me bring out what are your expectations /outlook for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in December? Please vote

  • A: 60% probability will chop around 4,444-4,600

  • B: 30% probability will break out >4,600

  • C: 10% probability will break below <4,444

At the same time, many institutions have also given outlooks for 2024. Welcome to read:

Vote: What‘s your expectation for $SPX in December?(Maximum1 votes)
  • 60% probability, $SPX. will move between 4444-4600(0 votes)
  • 30% probability, breaking through 4600 upwards(0 votes)
  • 30% probability, $SPX. will break through 4600 upwards(0 votes)
  • 10% probability, $SPX. will fall below 4444(0 votes)
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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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