Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Divided Government Could Restrict Policy Progress and Reduce Uncertainty Following the Republicans’ loss of their majorities in both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, Trump will face greater constraints and more negotiation over policy during the following two years. This may reduce policy efficiency, although it could also limit the market impact of unexpected measures and create a more stable environment. 2. AI Investment Is Driving a Valuation Reset, With Limited Evidence

Our Nasdaq short position was filled near last week’s rebound high, shortly before the market fell sharply and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart. At this sensitive point in the fourth quarter, is the decline the beginning of a trend reversal or merely another interruption in the slow US equity bull market? $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$ The bottom line is that the market may reboun

Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger Brokers covering changing trends in semiconductor stocks and US equity indexes, along with trading ideas for gold and silver. If you missed the live session, you can watch the course replay here >> 半導體股已見底還是跌勢剛開始？股指新一輪大行情正在醞釀 Next, I will categorize and summarize the course’s most important information and trading insights. This should help investors who did not have time to attend the class quickly understand my current market views. First, a brief personal introduction: My Professional Background Gu Mingzhe is a guest strategy instructor for CME, an instructor for the Singa

Hello everyone! Today we will review the latest technical developments in the Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index, Singapore Straits Times Index, WTI crude oil, gold and silver. Market performance remains divergent, with rebound attempts and downside pressure occurring at the same time. We will combine fundamentals with technical structures to identify key support, resistance and the conditions required to confirm the next move. Nasdaq: Bearish Structure Persists; Watch Key Support Below 美光科技(MU)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$

Options on futures are option contracts whose underlying assets are futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across different expiries and strike prices. They provide useful signals on market expectations, risk appetite and potential support or resistance zones, although they should not be interpreted as direct bullish or bearish signals. Today’s analysis covers changes in large options trades and open interest on October 28 relative to October 27. These are the latest available data in this report and provide a reference for assessing positioning and risk appetite. The latest futures options data show continued divergence across markets. The S&P 500 saw a wider put-side advantage, with multiple near-term strikes adding positions and the 6,20

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: Markets Turn Defensive as Volatility May Persist Through Next Year’s First Quarter  Under the US dollar cycle model, market volatility could continue through the first quarter of next year. Safe haven, arbitrage and options strategies should therefore take priority. If US equities break below key trendlines, investors should focus on risk control. Gold is unlikely to regain bullish momentum before reclaiming its 20 day moving average. A confirmed break below $4,000 could open

Despite greater stability in the bond market last week, key market bellwethers such as Bitcoin and gold showed signs of downside breakdowns. US equities also reversed sharply from their highs on the weekly chart. With oil approaching its previous peak and a critical market window drawing closer, investors should remain alert to the risk of a major correction. Markets also faced pressure two weeks ago, although the weakness was not yet broad based. Conditions have since changed as Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to sustain their rallies, while gold extended its decline and broke below $4,000. Risk assets now face renewed pressure from a potential broad based selloff. $比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ 

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了？標普的反彈目標位會達到多少？ Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea

English version： Options on futures are derivatives linked to futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal positioning across expiries and strikes, offering insight into market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance zones. However, they should not be treated as simple bullish or bearish signals. Today, we analyze changes in large options-on-futures trades and open interest on October 20 versus October 19. This is the latest available dataset and provides insight into positioning and risk appetite. The latest data show mixed positioning. S&P 500 front-month puts recorded the largest increase in open interest. Nasdaq puts remained dominant, while some longer-dated calls were reduced, indicating a defensive stance across equity indices. In crude oi

What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch?  The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately.   The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital.   For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how these views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Nvidia Straddle Closed for Profit; Lock In Option Gains Promptly: The previously discussed Nvidia straddle has been closed at a profit. Investors still holding the position should consider taking profits promptly. Profitable calls bought at lower levels should also be monetized into the rebound before lower implied volatility, time decay and weaker buying erode returns. 2. US Equity Selloff May Be Near Its End, Creating Conditions for a Rebound: Leveraged ETFs recorded a sharp

The latest US inflation data had raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could deliver three rate hikes this year. However, recent CME FedWatch data indicate little risk of an additional hike in October. Combined with the continued decline in Treasury yields, this suggests that risk on trading may dominate in the near term. As the fourth quarter approaches, however, any rally in risk assets could prove to be the “last dance.” Even a sharp advance should not be mistaken for a durable trend. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

This week, the dominant cross-asset pricing driver shifted from geopolitical risk premia to a U.S. rates shock. As Middle East supply disruption risks eased at the margin, crude oil retreated sharply from its mid-month high. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 30 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Oil’s decline did little to ease pressure on long-end yields, suggesting that the latest rate surge was driven mainly by a widening term premium and mounting Treasury supply pressure. With elevated rates and tighter liquidity expectations weighing on markets, equities, industrial metals, and precious metals all came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The