Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath

Global financial markets have recently grown increasingly complex, and it is evident that market capital is currently undergoing a drastic risk repricing. Against this backdrop, both commodities and equity markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion, struggling to sustain their recent trajectories. Crude oil may be facing fading upward momentum, while US equities—battered by capital outflows and suppressed by rising yields—appear vulnerable to further weakness at any moment.​ Short Bets Intensify on US Equities Institutional trading desk data reveals that the selling pressure on US equities is not to be underestimated. Goldman Sachs' Prime Book data flashes a distinctively negative signal: US equities have faced sell-offs for the fourth consecutive week. More alarmingly, hedge funds are not

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

The geopolitical risk premium has just been re-priced for the AI era. On March 11, Iran’s state media and the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency published a chilling manifesto titled "Iran’s New Targets." The document explicitly lists the facilities of Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi as legitimate military targets. Tehran has framed this as a retaliatory strike against the "infrastructure conflict" initiated by U.S.-Israeli cyberattacks on Iranian financial systems. The Disappearing Cash Flow: Where Is Big Tech’s Money Going? The market is witnessing something extremely rare: free cash flow (FCF) at tech giants is turning negative. This has barely happened over the past few decades. Many retail investors see this as bearish

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may

Last Friday (January 31), gold and silver $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ suffered a historic crash—leaving countless traders wondering: Is this a golden “buy-the-dip” opportunity, or just the beginning of a deeper sell-off? Especially now that gold has started rebounding over the past couple of days, FOMO is kicking in hard. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $富兰克林黄金及贵金属基金A (acc)USD(LU0496367417.USD)$ But i

After the sharp sell-off, the question weighing on many people right now is: can we buy the dip in gold and silver? If we do, are we looking at a short-term rebound—or a true reversal that resumes a longer-term uptrend? Let me start with the conclusion. In my view, the current rise in gold and silver should be treated only as a short-term rebound. Before prices rebound beyond a certain level, we should be extremely cautious: assume there will still be a C-wave selloff, and when the rebound peaks and shows signs of turning down, try again to build short positions. If the market keeps rising and moves above the entry level for the short, then stop out immediately. In short, before the market forms a clear bottoming structure, and before the risk event of Wash taking over as Fed Chair is defi