🎁$TLT Has Officially Entered a Bull Market, Hold or Sell?

1.$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ surged by more than 20% from the 16-year low

Long-Dated Treasuries have officially entered a bull market after $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ surged higher by more than 20% from the 16-year low it hit on October 23.

A bull market is commonly defined as a period of time when major stock market indexes are generally rising, with market indexes eventually reaching new highs.

What drives $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ , welcome to read:

• The Fed's Dovish Signals: Unleashing Wall Street's Craze for US Bonds – What Are the Odds?

• 【Opitons】Why do I sell TMF calls, not TLT？

• 🎁$TLT Call Option Volume Reach the 2nd Highest in History on Wednesday

Is the current big rise over for now, or will we see a lot of big buyers next week? What’s the next price target?

2. More Analysis about $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

@owenpatr $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ now trading over 99, using daily 200 SMA( the purple line) as support at $97.40. Buyers seems still active up here.

Personally sold most @ $95 from $85 entry, probably will be punching myself in a few weeks for that choice

@MarketSmith

@fm3835: monthly shows $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ starting a new trend. $105, $120 are next target.

@fm3835

@TrendSpider Remember when Bill Ackman saved the bond market?

TrendSpider

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ analysis @SpyMasterTrades: Recessions and volatility spikes tend to occur when the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ / $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ratio plummets.

Right now, the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ / $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ratio is printing a bearish shooting star all the way up on the quarterly chart (each candlestick is a 3-month period).

@SpyMasterTrades

Note how high this ratio has risen. It's nearly double the peak value reached in the lead-up to prior recessions. (The red-shaded areas highlight previous U.S. recessions).

Never has the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ been as overvalued as it is now when compared against the 'risk-free asset' (long-duration U.S. Treasurys). In fact, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is so overvalued that the sell-off in 2022 merely brought the Shiller PE Ratio down to about the same level as the peak before the Great Depression.

What concerns me the most about this #SPY / #TLT ratio chart is the unprecedented confluence of higher timeframe charts. The ratio is about to begin oscillating down on the monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and yearly charts at the same time.

My conclusion is that the coming recession will likely last quite a long time, or that it will come in waves as occurred during the stagflation of the 1970s (when several recessions occurred within the span of about 10 years).

Although it's easy to believe the proposition that a soft landing has been achieved when the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is 12 and the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is near an ATH, be aware that higher volatility will ensue from the record-fast rate hiking cycle. There is always a long lag between when interest rates rise and when the broad economy is impacted.

” Many charts continue to confirm that strong stagflation is coming. While I am a stock market bull over the long term, I remain convinced that an economic storm is coming.”

3. Will you sold most of your holdings?