Technical Analysis on SPY

Wow. Largest inflow ever to $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ever. In past 72 hours I have observed the chart below, another showing record retail inflow, retail confidence at highs, progressing through a month of greed on the back of the best November since 1980. Breadth has been phenomenal relative to the last two years. Santa spirit is at all time highs.

Considering the above— it is likely everyone has felt some benefit from this past two month. Small caps remarkable outperformance saving many late index participants, bonds outperforming the S&P 500 from the October low, even the bitcoin crowd has sense of euphoria into year end.

Again— it feels like everyone is in the equity pool again, and much faster than the last time. The bull trade takes the win for the year, and certainly over the last two months.

A final overarching thought— this past summer (April-August) served as a friendly reminder that the market can operate in a state of greed for a long time, nearly half the year.

One more— the eventual fed pivot. I have to impression most participants will neglect the majority of history supporting the outcome where markets most often bottom after rates have pivoted, up into that pivot they run. That is speculated to be March with some opinions on either end of the consensus.

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Santa spirit is at all time highs.  </p><p>Considering the above— it is likely everyone has felt some benefit from this past two month. Small caps remarkable outperformance saving many late index participants, bonds outperforming the S&amp;P 500 from the October low, even the bitcoin crowd has sense of euphoria into year end. </p><p>Again— it feels like everyone is in the equity pool again, and much faster than the last time. The bull trade takes the win for the year, and certainly over the last two months. </p><p>A final overarching thought— this past summer (April-August) served as a friendly reminder that the market can operate in a state of greed for a long time, nearly half the year. </p><p>One more— the eventual fed pivot. I have to impression most participants will neglect the majority of history supporting the outcome where markets most often bottom after rates have pivoted, up into that pivot they run. 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Small caps remarkable outperformance saving many late index participants, bonds outperforming the S&P 500 from the October low, even the bitcoin crowd has sense of euphoria into year end. Again— it feels like everyone is in the equity pool again, and much faster than the last time. The bull trade takes the win for the year, and certainly over the last two months. A final overarching thought— this past summer (April-August) served as a friendly reminder that the market can operate in a state of greed for a long time, nearly half the year. One more— the eventual fed pivot. I have to impression most participants will neglect the majority of history supporting the outcome where markets most often bottom after rates have pivoted, up into that pivot they run. That is speculated to be March with some opinions on either end of the consensus. 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