Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ in my opinion will be one of the best melt-up trade vehicles. This is a clean breakout out of a multi-year consolidation.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

$.SPX(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index closed the week down 1.37%, with market breadth shifting negative as more stocks hit new lows than highs across Nasdaq and NYSE markets—even after the recovery Friday. Early October came with slowing momentum, an amber caution sign then.Market dynamics shift quickly, and while each environment has its unique narrative, my approach—focusing on short-term trend, breadth, and momentum makes for a clear-headed, emotion-free strategy. Each vertical line in the chart below is an instance where all three criteria signaled risk-off. Last Thursday all three signals triggered the alarm: we're officially in a risk-off mode, again. The fourth time in 2024.This approach has effectively flagged recent declines, though this year’

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: For the second time this year, 3/3 risk-off criteria are simultaneously on. The last time these criteria set off was April 10 where the market declined an additional 4% before finding stability.Price is below its short term trend, breadth as measured by Net New Highs across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets recorded negative, and momentum is negative. I speculate that with the risk-off criteria setting off the alarm, the index is likely to decline further before this correction is complete. An ideal entry to this idea would be a stalled relief rally at 5450 while all 3 criteria remain active.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1

Market thoughts:- Today was a material single day decline. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is below its short term trend. A checkmark on the risk-off criteria. - Despite the daily decline, breadth remained positive with more stocks making new highs than lows. - Overall 2/3 risk-off criteria are active. I will refrain from bearish thoughts until 3/3- The melt-up scenario is on pause with $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ < 45, my trade there has ended with a paper cut. Will reattempt on next close above 45. Will repeat until melt-up transpires or a bear market never enables price to trade above 45- $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ is still above 212, this is a bright spotFollow

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is up 19% year to date— $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is down 7.5%. In the melt up scenario I think it very possible ARKK outperforms the index. I’m long ARKK— a decent chance Morningstar’s wealth destroyer commentary marked a bottom for the modern day risk on barometer. +2.4% to open the weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1/status/1812855310563897806

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ thoughts: The modern day risk on barometer closed above subtly 45 to end last week, and is now above the 50-day moving average. If a character change is underway, this moving average has good record of offering price support.I plan to participate actively in ARKK as price consistently trades above 45. This is my favored 'melt-up' trade. Any closes below 45 terminate the trade attempt. Meaningful exposure to the idea will be marked with a breakout above 52. I expect the initial positioning to generate a few paper cuts before establishing full trade size.If price fails to sustain above 45 I will not be interested, and will monitor broader market risk signals (short term trend, breadth and momentum) that favor the odds of a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ If a melt-up is underway, I believe small caps will outperform due to a mean reversion effect, like an elastic band. Cathie Wood's $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ has been named the 'wealth destroyer'The ETF has been consolidating sideways for nearly two years. While it may take some time for ARKK to break out, there are two key levels to watch for a change in character. The first is 45, which would move the price above the 50-day moving average, a level that has provided strong support. The second, more critical level is 52. Sustained prices above 52 would signal a visible breakout.For me, this ETF serves as a modern-day risk barometer.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Week over week market breadth continues to get worse. Throughout all of last week, more stocks made new lows than new highs. I frequently post about breadth, however in my analysis there is three criteria that determine a risk-off environment. Breadth as a stand-alone measure is insufficient.1. Price below the short term trend2. Negative breadth, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE and Nasdaq markets (middle panel)3. Negative Momentum, using the Percentage Price Oscillator (lower panel)When all three trigger, the market shifts to a risk off environment making a decline the next most probable move. Ending last week (and the two weeks before) only 1 of 3 criteria remain active. Similar to the post at the beginning

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Three criteria set the stage in my analysis for determining the market environment as risk-on or risk-off. 1. Price relative to the short term trend (20-day exp) 2. Breath, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE & Nasdaq markets 3. Momentum using the Percentage Price Oscillator When price falls below the short term trend, breadth turns negative, and momentum slows the market conditions quickly shift to risk-ff, making a decline the next most probable market move. The most recent event was on April 10, a quick and moderate 4% decline followed. At the end of last week, one of three risk off criteria was active. Ending Thursday this was 2/3, however Friday's rally prevented a full set of risk-off signals to trigger

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The broader market indices continue to trade at or near record all time highs, meanwhile the risk-on participation remains lacking for another week. For a melt-up scenario to develop I believe the risk on categories must participate. Like it or not, ARKK in my view remains the modern market gauge for risk on equities. If you don't like that then the traditional Russell 2000 tells the same story. Risk on participation is absent. Until $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ trades above 52, and IWM above 212 (RUT above 2175) I remain neutral on my broader market thoughts and in no rush to hop aboard the melt-up train. If a melt-up scenario is truly underway, I think it is probable that the