$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do

Soon the bouncing cat will have visitors. Sentiment is already shifting on X— if my speculating is correct this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rally has ~75 pts of upside towards 5150 before stalling and resuming the corrective decline that started at the beginning of the month.ImageS&P 500 thoughts mid week: “a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems well underway …Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Last week, for the first time since July 2023 all three correction criteria were triggered. A corrective move becomes most probable. (1) The index broke its uptrend by closing below the short term moving average (2) market breadth as measured by Net New Highs, turned negative indicating more stocks made new lows than new highs and(3) momentum continues to fall apart. These three correction criteria have preceded meaningful market declines. In the scenario of a moderate decline I am speculating 7% towards 4800, and in a more severe outcome a 12% decline towards the 4500 - 4600 range. All of these decline targets create a wonderful technical retest of significant levels for the index.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Pending any surprise intraday change in direction the market is set to activate all three of my correction criteria for the first time since July 2023.It was 3950-4100 as my target. I closed my short on the 26th and posted price was “close enough” to end the trade.3/3 correction criteria on 🚨 🚨 🚨 I think the S&P 500 is set for a corrective move to 4800, and more likely 4500-4600. Hibernation season is over.Image

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!The broader market $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ & $DJIA(.DJI)$ are all at or near all time highs, whereas the 'risk-on' categories are at or near a significant resistance level preventing a breakout $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is on its fourth attempt to break above $52 since becoming range bound mid 2022 The $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ while argued by some has already broken out, price is heading into a very visible level of resistance at $212, this was the floor (support) for the entirety o

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some technical analysis with you! I call this one “The Market & The Moon” - Small speculators are all-in (as by Sentimentrader) - Active fund managers are all-in (as by NAAIM Index) - Tech leadership vs $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is at highs exceeding GFC (as by BofA Research)ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

Unlike the broader market celebrating at/near all time highs, $Apple(AAPL)$ stock has had a different story. The “AI” storyline with semiconductors had taken over and I think this risk level is not receiving adequate attention. My take: Apple is approaching its $165 October low level. Price below here marks a visible breakdown. If price closes below $165, this is a market headwind.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1769548357280895169

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Active fund manager exposure reaches 2+ year high as shown by the NAAIM index. My thought remains the same— buying greed was unusually rewarded in December, and I think this has created a comfortable complacency obscuring the more prevalent strategy that is to "buy fear, sell greed" 1 of 3 correction criteria are active S&P 500 trading below 5090 triggers the second.Imagehttps://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: When will the market top? There are three correction criteria I monitor every week. 1. Price trading below the short term trend, I use the 20-day moving average 2. Breadth turns negative, more stocks make new lows vs new highs 3. Momentum is disrupted Presently, price is above the short term trend and breadth has been overwhelmingly positive. Consequently, criteria 1 and 2 remain inactive. Criteria 3 is momentum. I use the Price Percentage Oscillator (mid panel) to gauge momentum. In my work a momentum disruption is either immediately followed by a decline, or occurs at the end of a series of interruptions where the correction erases the advance during the cycle. These momentum interruptions are marked with red dots i

Participants are well versed in "buy fear, sell greed". Last week marked two months of elevated greed and there are notable participants selling. Jeff Bezos has sold $8.5B of $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Stock Mark Zuckerberg has offload over $400M of $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Jamie Dimon sold $150M of $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ Lsa Su started selling $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ stock While it may mean absolutely nothing at all, it is worth noting that Jeff and Mark last sold shares in December 2021, nearly marking the previous all time high in the markets. Jamie's sale of company shares is his first since being in the top seat, and

For the broader market I have shared thoughts of a decline, for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ towards 4500 - 4600. While this has yet to materialize, the risk signals have started to flash through last week. I have also shared that small cap, $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ -like, '2020-cohort' (what is left of them) equities are unlikely to avoid the red market paintbrush during a broad corrective move. 40 - 45 remains my level of interest. Following a healthy decline, I am speculating another round of outperformance from this category.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1