I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year's Day!
This week is the last trading week in 2023. There is no important data and most traders are in holidays, so the market is expected to be relatively quiet. However, after the end of this week, next month will be an annual series of investment foresight posts . If you want to know the key trading opportunities next year, please pay more attention.
Returning to the current market, the market is already looking forward to the Fed's interest rate cut next year. The only difference lies in the number of interest rate cuts. Although some investment institutions have expected the US stock market to collapse next year, they still suggest that you read less reports and more market conditions, because "risk" is potential, only when and how to detonate, so you can recognize the current situation.
How to deal with the last week's transactions?
Due to the recent large fluctuations in many commodities and indexes, it is estimated that there will be a rest in the last week of the year, but the decline is estimated to be limited.
For example, the US stock index continues to rise based on the 20-day moving average, and even if it will decline into correction next week, it is expected to stand firm near the 20-day moving average. If so, it can be regarded as a short-term long-term intervention opportunity.
In addition, since the U.S. equity weight index has continued to hit a new high, the opportunity for the small and medium-sized stock index to make up for the increase can not be ignored. Maybe next year, the opportunity for the stock index will be concentrated among the small and medium-sized stocks. The characteristics of index rotation exist in both Chinese and foreign stock markets. After all, the increase of heavyweights in 2023 is not small, and institutions may change positions and exchange shares. Of course, they will cooperate with the reason of soft landing of the economy to convince the market.
For gold, near the end of the year, the price of gold is generally strong (peak consumption season), but usually the increase is not very drastic, generally within 2%, so don't think too much in the next week. It is expected that there will be a large fluctuation in the first week of the year. This stage is suitable for selling short-term periodic rights to obtain option income, but remember to sell long-term options, because after New Year's Day, institutional investors will re-open positions, which will disturb market prices, and I am afraid there will be some unexpected fluctuations (review 2021)
Crude oil
Due to the trend of crude oil, it is possible to continue to fluctuate next week, but the range is relatively limited. The whole market has not fully priced in the impact of the "Red Sea suspension". When the "suspension" continues, the supply chain will be further disrupted. I am afraid that the supply chain problem similar to that in 2021 will be repeated again, resulting in relatively strong oil prices. However, there is no need to be too active in doing more at present, and it is not too late to intervene when the trend is obvious.
$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2403 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2403 (YMmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2403 (ESmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2402 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Line 2402 (CLmain) $
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