With the arrival of Christmas holiday and New Year's Day approaching, the volatility of financial markets began to slow down as promised. For risky assets represented by US stock index, this situation is naturally a positive factor. However, after traders returning to the market, it remains to be seen whether the market will be triggered by events.
The performance of the three major indexes of U.S. stocks in the past 1-2 weeks was stronger than expected. Although there was no short-selling trend, the overall bullish atmosphere remained good. Taking Standard & Poor's as an example, the positive performance for seven consecutive weeks shows that the market is more motivated to go long. Of course, in terms of time period factors, the week after New Year's Day market may fall into correction due to the arrival of nine signals.
On the reference index NVIDIA, the situation is slightly different. Although the stock price has maintained a high and volatile situation, it has failed to break through the suppression of the previous double highs, and the possibility and risk of triple highs are not ruled out at present.
We have reason to suspect that if the star stocks do not make an upward breakthrough and eventually turn downward, it will inevitably drag down the US stock market. However, what needs to be done now is to observe the intensity of the pressure level and whether it will synchronize the progress of the index later. Considering the large oscillation range of NVIDIA's box, the time period may not be too short.
In addition to US stocks, commodities represented by copper and oil also launched their own counterattack at the end of the year. As previously guessed, the deviation of copper and oil from the market will not last long, and will eventually be completed in the form of slow rebound of copper and rapid bottoming of oil price in the year.
After the bottom support was tested, the oil price rose to the "Biden point" without accident. (The United States will buy back crude oil reserves below $70 and sell reserves around $100.) If the momentum of US stocks can be continued in the new year, there will still be room for copper and oil to make up for the increase. Conversely, if commodities weaken, we need to be more cautious about the prospects of US stocks.
In gold, the price of gold has stabilized again to near the previous historical high. After refreshing the high level before, the pullback/retracement was fast and fierce, which led to the forced departure of our newly added bulls, but the long-term positions did not change.
Slow rise and sharp fall is one of the obvious characteristics in bull market, so gold can continue to explore higher price level after consolidation. The seesaw around the level of 2085/90 may occupy the main line in the holiday market, but as long as it keeps fluctuating and running above the pullback/retracement low in 1987, it will not affect the overall pattern.
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