2024 is coming, I wish you all a happy New Year! !
At the beginning of the new year, everyone is full of expectations for the future, especially in investment. Last year's gains and losses will return to zero this year and start again. Here, I continue my habit for many years and bring you some thoughts on this year's investment, hoping to help you invest this year.
According to the usual practice, let's talk about US stocks first.
2024 is an election year in the United States. It will be a normal drama for the opposition party to do somethings to cause fluctuation and the ruling party to maintain market stability, and there will always be fluctuations. But I don't think there will be great risks in US stocks, mainly because of the Federal Reserve.
When the Federal Reserve released the "doves" signal at the end of the year, it must see some economic worries that ordinary people can't see, so as to prevent doves. Once there is a problem with the economic data, with the current high interest rate, the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to save the market, thus making the US stocks fluctuate smoothly. Therefore, the running ruling party and the Federal Reserve should not be too pessimistic about the US stocks when the Federal Reserve has policy space.
So what about technology? According to my exclusive the US Dollar Index cycle model (highly correlated with the Fed's monetary policy cycle), the US dollar will enter the late stage of depreciation from next year.
The biggest feature of this stage is that the Fed re-loosens money, and it is easier to do long than short. According to the characteristics of this stage, although US stocks are not the protagonists of this period (the increase will not be violent), they are also fluctuating and rising on the whole. Therefore, from the technical point of view of one-year dimension, the overall problem of US stock index is not big, and the difference only lies in when seemingly violent fluctuations occur before the election and then copied back.
(In the late period of US dollar depreciation, the US stock index remained generally stable)
As for the specific month, 2-5-8-10 is still a node reference for the US stock index. I prefer May and August to be the more important time nodes this year. After all, these two months are the most sensitive to the election time, and are prone to some high fluctuation inflection points, thus affecting some voters' emotions to mobilize the election situation. In addition, since November last year, the market has fully anticipated the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and US stocks have also been encouraged to rise. If US stocks are still at a high level in February, they will be easily adjusted by the "doves" of the Federal Reserve. Although there are adjustments, the Federal Reserve should still be saved. For investors, it is necessary to find a suitable low point to intervene.
To sum up, I still think that the overall problem of the 2024 US stock index is not big, but it does not mean that I think there is no "thunder" in the US stock index. It just tends that this "thunder" will break out at a certain point after the election. Combined with the characteristics of the US Dollar Index cycle, it may appear in 25-26 years. In fact, we have all discussed the problems that should emerge at that time today, which is not new.
$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2403 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2403 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2403 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2402 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Line 2402 (CLmain) $
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