Just like the US dollar cycle shared with you in the previous post, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve enters the interest rate cut cycle.
The interest rate cut means that the US Dollar Index has entered the later stage of the depreciation cycle. At this stage, it will be relatively easier to go long . As a precious metal negatively related to the US Dollar Index sensitivity, it is the key variety to do more.
First, the technical status of gold
There is nothing to say about the fundamentals of precious metals at present, because there is not much bad news at all. The Red Sea attack in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict benefits gold in terms of risk aversion, the depreciation cycle of the US dollar benefits gold at the monetary level, and the major central banks increase their holdings of gold and benefit gold in terms of real purchasing power.
Of course, everyone is bullish, which is a crowded trade and prone to reverse in a short term. Therefore, the trend of different precious metals will be different.
The first is gold. In recent years, the inflection point of gold price has always been ahead of the Fed's policy, which shows that the market expectation is ahead of the Fed's action. Therefore, when everyone expects the Fed to cut interest rates, in fact, gold price has already reflected this part of expectations to a large extent.
Therefore, in terms of speed, gold price will actually rise faster this year than not, with a high probability of fluctuating between 1800 and 2400, that is, the increase is within 15%. Therefore, gold belongs to a variety that can be held, but speculation needs patience.
Technically, the 20-month moving average is a good distinction between long and short gold prices, without breaking the 20-month moving average. Gold prices are still in the long-term long-term direction, just ink marks.
Second, silver has more speculative value
The fundamentals of silver are not bad in the context of the great development of photovoltaics. With the price of gold bottoming out, silver will usher in an explosion point at some point. According to my calculation, the initiation point will probably be around the middle of the year, but the specific news cannot be inferred at present, because the silver market has always been pulse-like, and its characteristic is that it rises rapidly by 50%-100% in a short time.
Usually, such fluctuations are sudden news on the news surface, so what we need to do is to wait for the silver low point and bargain for the low position layout. Because silver fluctuates greatly, it is not recommended to speculate too much, which can reduce the impact of intraday fluctuations on speculative positions.
In addition, pay attention to the technical line of silver technology. Once it breaks through, it will probably accelerate. Therefore, if you speculate, try to design the trading strategy according to this line, so that the efficiency will be higher.
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