The first non-farm report for 2024 arrived as promised last Friday (although the data was still in December last year). The unexpected growth of employment population was suppressed by the upward pressure of hourly wage, and most assets in the market also showed cross star market under this mixed data. When the Fed's scheduled monetary policy will start is likely to need more data to support it.
According to public data, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 216,000 in December, much higher than the widely expected 171,000. In the United States, the unemployment rate was 3.7% in December, and the wage increase in December exceeded expectations. The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, which was consistent with the previous value. However, the year-on-year growth rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.9% and accelerating from 4% last month.
After the data, FedWatch showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March dropped from 70% + to about 60%. As we said before, if the index exceeds 70%, it is basically a sure thing, but today's value may be variable.
It is clear that higher-than-expected job growth and wage increases will delay until the Fed returns to loose monetary policy. However, considering that FOMC still has some time until March, the final results need to be promoted by more data. However, it seems that from the reverse push of the bond market, it is only a matter of time before the US cuts interest rates, not a matter of YES OR NO.
From the market trend point of view, including the US Dollar Index, gold and US stock indexes, all closed in the form of cross stars last Friday, showing that there are obvious differences between long and short positions at present.
From the time-sharing chart, the US dollar is rising and falling, while the other two are bottoming out and rising. Therefore, if there is no rapid directional market in the first two trading days of this week, it is very likely that there will be a trend of short-term kinetic energy continuation.
It is worth mentioning that although US stocks have fallen for almost a week, Nvidia, the leading indicator, is still hovering around the relative historical high, so there is no need to worry too much about the risk of reversal of US stocks now, especially when volatility remains low.
However, in terms of actual strategy, we think that the current difficulty is still relatively large, and the possibility of market volatility and false breakthrough is not small. Whether you try trendline trading or do interval bands, there are certain risks. In addition, the time for traditional traders to return is still about 1 or 2 weeks, so if it is not a good opportunity, we might as well wait and see.
Unless it returns to a low point in a large range, for example, the oil price returns to below 70; Gold approached or tested the previous important low in 1988; S&P makes up for the gap, etc., or challenges obvious high resistance, such as the historical high of gold and the central axis of oil price 83/84. At that time, there is a reasonable risk-return ratio of game opportunities.
To sum up, in the first year, the market is also groping. Because there is no good opportunity, it is a recommended choice to respond to changes in the current environment.
$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2403 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2403 (YMmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2403 (ESmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2402 (GCmain) $
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