The story of the strong market continues at the beginning of 2024. Under the leadership of Nvidia, the core leading index, the US stock index reached a new high after a slight correction in January, and the monthly line has shown a three-year positive trend. In an environment where volatility is still obviously low, it is difficult to see the opportunity of trend reversal in a short time.
As early as the end of last year, we talked about how to judge the direction of US stocks. It is very important to keep an eye on the performance of AI concept leaders. At that time, the stock price continued to fluctuate in the range, but there was no sign of downward movement, so the upward pressure maintained by bulls was obviously more obvious.
In the end, after the breakthrough of Daily k-line in early January, the stock price has been rising steadily, and now it is close to the integer level of 600 US dollars, far higher than the previous high turnover level of 500 US dollars. Obviously, with the arrival of the breakthrough, both individual stocks and stock indexes have opened up more upward space.
Although the S&P index, which is relatively in a rising state, is not strong in the rhythm and intensity of breakthrough, the bullish atmosphere remains very intact. The previous callback low 4702 has now turned into short-term core support, and before falling below it, we can keep a positive bullish thinking.
In addition, the ATR index is at a relatively low level on the weekly and daily lines, which also implies that the risk of market volatility is not high. The only thing to worry about may be only on cyclical/seasonal factors. In the past few years, even though the US stock index is in a slow bull pattern, the probability of continuous rise in the fourth quarter + the first quarter of the new year is low.
If there is no correction in the first half, we need to be alert to the possible callback in February-March. Of course, callback does not mean reversal at all. When the current macro fundamentals are ideal, callback is likely to be an opportunity to get on the bus at a low level or trade in shock. According to the K-line structure of the long line, the next target that can look high at the first line is around 5064, which is 161.8% extension level of this round of long cattle.
Compared with the stock index, the crude oil market, which was previously expected to make up for the increase, is tepid. Although there has also been an ideal rebound below 70, the whole market in the past two months is still in a very standard triangular consolidation category.
The swing high of 75.25 now becomes the resistance to further rise, while the key support of downshift remains unchanged. Considering the positive correlation between the stock market and commodities, there are still opportunities for crude oil to make up for the subsequent increase. The central axis of the big cycle near 84 needs more fundamental improvement before it can be touched or broken through, while the 95-100 area is still an ideal selling price on rally.
Finally, let's talk about gold briefly: It is still in the process of correction, and a higher high point can be expected in 2024. Single people are likely to get out of zigzag or platform adjustment in the short term. The most suitable low position access position can be seen at the lowest near 1930. If the adjustment force is weak, the double-bottom structure will be constructed up and down the low position before 1987.
$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2403 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2403 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2403 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2402 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Line 2403 (CLmain) $
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