Agricultural products are one of the most suitable varieties for novices to try in commodity investment.
The key lies in finding the right entry point, that is, weather cycle. If you don't understand, it doesn't matter. Later this year, I have a series of courses on agricultural products, telling you how to track and formulate relevant strategies for agricultural products. Please pay attention.
In the cycle of agricultural products, the most frequently repeated cycle is the El Nino/La Nina cycle every four years, which is mainly caused by the change of water temperature in ocean circulation, and the most direct impact of the change of ocean water temperature is the precipitation in different latitudes.
In addition to the planting area, it is more important to know whether the weather is good or not. Once it is windy and rainy, it will become an excuse for capital to hoard goods, which has been the case for hundreds of years, but the difference is only different in degree.
First, agricultural products in 2024 are weather markets
There is no doubt that we must pay attention to this year. Taking American beans (which are the most sensitive varieties affected by weather factors) as an example, opening the price chart, there are important inflection points of prices in 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020, among which 04, 08, 12 and 16 are all high prices, and there was a pulse market in that year.
In 2020, it was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. After the low point in the middle of that year, the price pulse all the way across the year. In the rise of these markets, it is accompanied by the news that bad weather affects the output, so when the cycle year of agricultural products appears, it is enough to do a good job of position management and track the market.
Second, the important month of agricultural products in 2024
Although 2024 is the weather cycle year of agricultural products, there is no relevant weather news at present, so it is normal for agricultural products prices to fall recently.
According to the planting growth cycle, if there is no weather factor at present, the next important time node will appear at the end of March or June. Therefore, the expected value of agricultural products market in the first half of the year is not high, and it may continue to fall. The best situation is that the current price will hold up, and then it will continue to fluctuate in the first half of the year, waiting for the weather hype to come. In this case, the winning rate of agricultural products is the highest, so agricultural products are the most urgent varieties.
Among the important times of agricultural products this year, June is considered to be the most critical time, because the planting weather in the United States began to be hyped in June, and this year, some weather reports said that the hottest record may be set again in the United States this year, and the hot weather will easily lead to drought of agricultural products.
Among many weather disasters, drought has a particularly fatal impact on the output of agricultural products. Therefore, starting from June, we must pay attention to the local weather in the United States, especially the precipitation. Once there are signs of drought, we need to follow up first to avoid missing opportunities.
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