Just entering March, in the absence of obvious special news, gold, US stocks and crude oil all rose sharply last Friday night, not to mention the rapid upward trend of Bitcoin a few days ago.
This trend of market resonance shows that besides believing in the expectation of interest rate cut, the market began to gradually believe that inflation is coming again, which leads to the strange phenomenon that interest rate cut and inflation coexist.
Theoretically, when inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has no incentive to cut interest rates. However, with the current high bond stock of the Federal Reserve (with a total loss of US $114.3 billion last year), it will take about four years to "turn losses" even if the interest rate is cut now. Therefore, the market believes that the interest rate cut will only be a matter of time, and the stubbornness of inflation data makes the market lay out anti-inflation assets in advance to cope with the future interest rate cut situation. Therefore, the coexistence of inflation and interest rate cut will be a strange phenomenon this year.
Crude oil finally broke through the important price of 79. As a result, news came out over the weekend, and OPEC + agreed to extend the production reduction until the end of the second quarter.
Driven by this news, US crude oil is not expected to perform badly, but the growth rate is still ink. 90 is a hurdle, which is not so easy to pass, so the expectation should not be too high. Overall, it has not reached the stage of rapid rise. Short-term stop loss treatment can be done at 20-week moving average and 76 US dollars, and then tracking.
As it broke through on Friday night, the put part of last week's double buy option can be closed, leaving the call option with real value to continue to hold, and see if it will continue to rise this week. Anyway, the oil price is not bearish, and the tone of bargain-hunting will remain unchanged if it falls more.
Last week's post said that the characteristics of gold's monthly K-line chart are obvious. After three consecutive months of consolidation, the follow-up will choose the direction. From the accelerated rise on Friday, at least the probability of rising in March is relatively high (the monthly increase is more than 5%), so there is still an increase, that is, the speed is not too big, or it is better to take advantage of the trend.
Strategically, in addition to holding long positions, you can buy a small amount of silver as a long reserve (everyone read my previous posts and always thought that silver has a market this year). As for gold, it rarely rises for many consecutive days, usually rising for one day and then continuing to rise for two days.
After all, there are many cases where the monthly increase is 5%-6%, and it has already increased by 2% on March 1, which means that the probability of fluctuating and rising in the rest of March is not small.
Therefore, it is not recommended for everyone to make profits by buying options. It is more realistic to take futures honestly or buy some gold bars. Finally, since gold gets rid of shocks and rises strongly, it can be tracked continuously with the 20-day moving average.
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