Fed Holds Rates？Market Consensus and 2024 Outlook

Interest-Rate Decision at 2 p.m. EST; Dow Futures $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2406(YMmain)$ Muted

The Fed's decision to stand pat this time around has become the consensus. Can the expectation of rate cuts in 2024 remain stable?

1. TD Securities: Expectations are that there won't be any policy changes, with the Fed likely to maintain the median expectation of three rate cuts this year and announce preliminary details of slowing balance sheet reduction.

2. Bank of America: If the dot plot shows the Fed will cut rates three times in 2024, the bond yield curve will steepen in a bearish trend, and risk appetite sentiment will persist.

3. Citigroup: Powell is expected to reiterate that rate cuts are not far off, with the core PCE forecast for end of 2024 potentially rising to 2.5%. The FOMC is expected to disclose principles for balance sheet reduction.

4. BNP Paribas: No policy changes are expected, with economic indicators over the next few months determining whether mid-year rate cuts are feasible. The dot plot may become more hawkish.

5. Deutsche Bank: The Fed is unlikely to change rates this week, with the dot plot expected to show the Fed will cut rates three times this year, consistent with December's forecast.

6. Rabobank: Similar to the Fed, hints of rate cuts later this year are expected at the meeting, with a forecast of a 125 basis point cut starting from June this year.

7. UBS: No changes are expected at this Fed meeting, with rate cuts anticipated at the June meeting, with cuts of 25 basis points expected at the July, September, and December meetings.

8. ING Bank: The Fed is expected to stand pat, with the dot plot still showing three rate cuts expected this year. It may be too early to announce balance sheet reduction slowing.

9. ANZ Bank: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, with no substantive changes in economic forecasts, and information on slowing the balance sheet expected to be conveyed starting from May.

10. Credit Agricole: The Fed is expected to be ready to announce details of slowing QT in May and start slowing in June, with much to be done at this meeting.

11. Morgan Stanley: The FOMC is expected to continue to stand pat, with minimal changes expected in the FOMC's policy statement and forecasts, with the median rate still implying three rate cuts.

12. Deutsche Bank: Minor modifications are expected in the meeting statement, and if the core PCE for 2024 is raised to 2.5%, it will provide enough room for a 75 basis point rate cut this year.

13. Danske Bank: The dot plot is expected to still show three rate cuts this year, with the Fed possibly cutting rates as early as May. The meeting may have a slightly hawkish tone.

14. Nordea Bank: No change in rates or the pace of balance sheet reduction is expected this time, or an upward adjustment in economic/inflation expectations, with the dot plot possibly showing two rate cuts this year.

15. Royal Bank of Canada: The Fed is expected to stand pat for the fifth consecutive time, but any changes in the wording of the monetary policy statement will be closely watched.

16. CIBC: The Fed is expected to stand pat, with Powell avoiding sending clear signals about the first rate cut, and long-term rate forecasts possibly rising.

17. National Bank Wealth Management: There's no expectation for the easing bias in the rate statement to become more pronounced, with focus on whether the median rate in the dot plot shifts upward.

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