Since the US and Iran signed the ceasefire memorandum, news of renewed armed clashes between the two sides has emerged again over the weekend. The incident started when some merchant ships failed to navigate along Iran's designated routes, leading to them being intercepted with weapons fire, while the US bombed Iranian regional facilities once again on the grounds that Iran did not adhere to the terms. In reality, the entire process is no different from before the memorandum was signed; they fight and talk to increase their respective bargaining chips, and then pull back to the negotiating table to renegotiate. The rhythm of the entire financial market will continue to be pulled back and forth by relevant news, and investors should prepare for a roller-coaster ride. Of course, for short-te

After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East saw renewed uncertainties over the past weekend, ultimately failing to reach a comprehensive agreement. However, considering that the market's sensitivity has significantly dulled, unless hostilities officially resume, this is not expected to disrupt the performance of most assets. Recently, we can shift our focus toward the foreign exchange market. Taking the US Dollar Index (DXY) as a reference, the price action is currently hovering near a crucial watershed level. Based on our long-term bearish view on the dollar, there is reason to suspect that new selling opportunities may emerge, and the DXY itself faces the risk of a bull trap. Earlier this year, the dollar once approached its 10-year long-term trendline, but the bulls ultimately defended thi

Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;

Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the