This year is an important election year in the world. Many countries have election activities this year, especially in the second half of the year.
Such election-related news will continue to appear. However, because the current world economy as a whole is not as good as before, there will be many uncertainties in the election, and even extreme policy commitments made by different political factions in order to attract votes will bring some unexpected changes to the development of global politics and economy.
The changes in French politics are only a microcosm of European politics, and other countries are not necessarily very stable. This makes European capital worry, and then further withdraw from the European market and return to the United States. From the perspective of capital flow, this will affect the United States. The market has brought benefits, making the US index continue to be stronger than other European indexes.
1. Impact on US stock indexes
The primary need for capital is safety. The European stock index (German index and French index) fell, while the US stock index did not move, which already shows the choice of capital. The biggest beneficiary of the turmoil in Europe must be the United States, so this incident will not be negative for the US stock index, so the US stock market is still strong.
Unless Europe's political problems get out of control and trigger a large-scale economic recession, there will be spillover effects affecting other countries' markets at this time, so investing in European indexes is not a very good choice at present. In terms of time, May, the key time point for the U.S. stock index, is a low point, so there is a high probability that the U.S. stock index will be relatively stable before August. There is no need to deliberately track it, just use a 20-day moving average to observe the market.
2. Pay attention to the strong support of silver, which may be the bottom of the stage
I have always emphasized that silver is the key product this year. The market has been running so far, and it has not yet reached the lower limit of historical growth in terms of magnitude.
Therefore, after the silver price bottoms out, there is still a good room for growth. After the release of CPI and other data and the Fed's speech last week, the market is not too worried about the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, so gold and silver prices may bottom out at this stage. However, due to the relatively hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve, the price of gold will be suppressed. Even if it bottoms out, it may not be able to hit a new high, so everyone should not expect too much. With the blessing of new energy attributes, silver will be the main variety in the precious metal market in the next stage.
Technically, it has always been emphasized that the 10-week moving average of COMEX silver is an extremely important trend line. If it falls below, the mid-term trend will end. If the support here is strong, the mid-term trend will still exist. The closing price of silver last week was still just above the 10-week moving average. If it breaks through next week, the bottom of the silver price will be confirmed in stages, and it may usher in the final charge.
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