Expectations and timing changes about the Fed's interest rate cuts have become the main factors for recent market fluctuations, and related core US data have also attracted wide attention. Interestingly, although the risk appetite has not improved significantly, the US stock market, gold and Bitcoin have recently shown a certain degree of divergence.
Gold's Second Bottom
Gold refreshed its previous high in May, but then there was a continuous decline. Although it rebounded due to the rapid development of silver, our previous content also predicted a possible rebound and then a fall. The previous round of adjustment lows at 2285 may still be used as the target of short sellers, thus forming a platform model, followed by a new wave of rising prices.
Although the point is not far away, this does not mean that the time period will be completed soon. The pullback/retracement from the historical high has only lasted for about a month. The market may need more time for space to digest the previous market. Of course, there is also a risk of breaking through 2285, but as long as the bulls remain above 2150, the medium and long-term trend will not change.
U.S. stocks may continue to rise
The U.S. stock market continues to set new record highs, and the market seems to not be able to see or find a real peak. We have said before that it is difficult to expect a reversal point, but before and after the start of the US election, you only need to immerse yourself in long and long.
Judging from the policy trend of cutting interest rates more and more backward, the United States is relatively satisfied with the current financial market, and the chances of the general election leaning towards the Democratic Party are also greater-otherwise the Fed would need to take action earlier to escort up. Judging from this logic, US stocks will still be the most stable target among the three indicators.
Bitcoin may backtest deeply
Regarding the Bitcoin, we have actually done relatively sufficient content last week. Unfortunately, the bulls still have not been able to make an upward breakthrough.
In-depth backtesting will mean that there will be a large-scale ABC mode consolidation in the market, so that both time and price will face greater elongation (blue mode). Conversely, assuming that the small-scale zigzag adjustment on the left has been completed, you need to see the start of the gray mode, that is, returning to above 72,000, and a new high should also be a matter of course.
$NQ100 Index Main 2409 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main 2409 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main 2409 (YMmain) $$Gold Master 2408 (GCmain) $$CME Bitcoin Main Company 2406 (BTCmain) $
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