The recent market is always very volatile, which tests traders' trading skills. Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate until August-September, waiting for the key signal of the Fed's interest rate path.
1. Pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock index
At present, the U.S. stock index is still the same as before in the election year, and the trend is still very stable. However, during the rise of the U.S. stock index, the stock price fluctuations of different listed companies rotated. The previous strength of technology stocks made the transaction too crowded. When other economic data pointed to economic recovery, then funds will withdraw from the crowded transaction and turn to Other indexes, and the PMI index released on Friday has changed the strength of the US stock index.
The U.S. composite PMI index rose to its highest level since the cessation of rate hike in June, indicating that the U.S. economy has withstood the pressure of rate hike and is gradually recovering. The most profitable index for economic recovery is the Dow, so the Dow may be stronger than the Nasdaq in the future and become the driving force for the U.S. stock index to rise. Friends who plan to hold the U.S. index for a long time may wish to allocate a little bit of the Dow to achieve the effect of asset rotation.
In terms of macro technology, the price comparison relationship between the Nasdaq and the Dow has historically had range characteristics. When the price comparison between the Nasdaq and the Dow is close to the upper limit of the range, the two will often reverse their strength and weakness, and there is a certain chance that the Nasdaq will fall.
At present, the price ratio of the Nasdaq and the Dow is already at the upper limit of the range. Regardless of whether the Nasdaq will fall or not, it is a relatively safe choice for bulls to switch to the Dow. In this way, they can keep up with the increase when they rise, and if they fall, they will fall relatively less.
2. How to choose the direction of gold and silver?
This PMI data reflects the economic recovery, so there is no need for the Fed to rush to cut interest rates, and gold price bulls' expectations have once again failed.
In the past few years, the script has been familiar. Anyway, the gold price market since April in the past three years has been relatively tossing. After October, the market began to form a consensus and began to speculate on the path of the Fed's interest rate cut in the new year. Therefore, the current adjustment of gold and silver is not surprising., but how the decline is, we have to see if there is more bad news in the future, otherwise the decline will still be very limited. However, the technical characteristics of silver remain unchanged. If the 10-week moving average falls below (it has not yet fallen below), the mid-term bullish market needs to be re-brewed, and then observe other technical characteristics before deciding the next key position.
$Nasdaq Inverse ETF (PSQ) $$NQ100 Index Main 2409 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main 2409 (YMmain) $$SP500 Index Main 2409 (ESmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Company 2408 (CLmain) $$Gold Master 2408 (GCmain) $
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