From the perspective of the RMB/USD exchange rate, the low point of the new trading range is around 7.1, while the high point of 7.36 is an important pressure level.
The slow rise in the second quarter did provide some initial signals, but for pure technical trends, it is obvious that a new high exchange rate (new low RMB exchange rate) is needed to truly announce the arrival of the trend.
Why can't we trade early now? The main reason may come from the progress of the news. From a macro logic point of view, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates within this year. Even if the People's Bank of China has loose expectations, it will not be able to widen the interest rate spread.
Secondly, the renminbi itself is not a completely freely convertible product, and it will have its own characteristics more or less. sex. Under the premise that there is no significant difference between the Chinese and American economies, the cost of protecting the market is not high. Therefore, even if the renminbi is under pressure in the long run, the long-term time period will exceed most people's expectations. Premature speculation about the collapse of the renminbi is unreasonable.
Judging from the overall situation in the US Dollar Index, after the breakthrough of the diamond form as we mentioned before, the opportunity for the dollar to rise is quite obvious.
In other words, a stronger dollar will be a high probability event. However, it should be noted that after the breakthrough of the form, the overall volatility of the market is still at a significantly low level, and there is no acceleration or short squeeze. This is still the situation where the US interest rate cut is expected to be delayed again and again, and the European Central Bank cuts interest rates in advance. Based on this, our judgment is that there needs to be turmoil in the financial market to trigger the dollar to go out of the upward trend.
Combined with the situation of the U.S. dollar and the renminbi, until the relatively stable slow bull pattern of risky assets such as U.S. stocks does not change, we tend to only have periodic market conditions in the internal and external markets.
At the same time, we can also pay due attention to the performance of the yen. As the only financing currency in the current market, the Japanese yen continues to depreciate significantly. On the one hand, the rebound of the yen can imply the return of funds and changes in risk expectations, and on the other hand, it can also be regarded as the possibility of a "substitute player". Before the yen keeps falling and changes, you don't have to worry too much about the renminbi.
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