Three Horses Driving-The trends of US stocks, gold and Bitcoin have shown obvious differentiation in the past period of time. The strong and strong U.S. stock index has seen a new impetus, and gold is also a bottom out, but Bitcoin has seen a further break.
As the price slipped below 56,000, the worry of a bear market began to be gradually raised by the market again. So should we believe in Double Bottoms or Big Double Top?
Starting from the fundamentals, the overall situation in the near future is actually relatively stable. Although the benefits of ETF and halving have been implemented, both of them are changes throughout the market, so they can be regarded as long-term support factors.
In terms of monetary policy, the interest rate market suggests that the first interest rate cut this year may be seen in September, and there will be another interest rate cut at the end of the year. From the perspective of liquidity expectations, this is obviously also a positive aspect. Of course, there are some short-term bad news, such as the continuous selling of the German government, and some rumors that other countries are selling, etc. But on the whole, it is still a mixed situation, and the price decline is more the result of lack of technical structure and confidence.
Back to the technical graphics, Bitcoin has undergone nearly 4 months of adjustment after the historical high of 73,700, which covers multiple counter-pumps to 70,000 +, but all of them failed to set a new high again. If you can't attack for a long time, there will naturally be the inertia of profit-taking and rebound selling. However, these situations have not yet produced unexpected results. As long as the currency price can effectively maintain the current level, the platform (or close to zigzag) adjustment will still be effective.
Therefore, this month's long-short competition and closing situation will become extremely critical. Ideally, the platform correction will ensure that the price is above the 5W integer mark, and even last week's low should not continue to break down. On the contrary, if there is a large-scale zigzag adjustment, it will point to the target price around 4.5 W. In this way, the pressure on the market and the challenge of subsequent re-pulling will be greatly increased.
It must be admitted that at the weekly level, after Bitcoin's 4-game losing streak, the situation is not ideal, especially last week's devouring negative line was even weaker. Therefore, even if you want to buy the bottom, you may only be able to build a part of the bottom position first, and then wait for a bottom to rebound or a mid-level positive weekly close before you can think that the bulls have returned.
At the same time, we can also make appropriate reference to the progress of Ethereum.
ETH is also double-headed VS double-bottom on the weekly line. The double-digit decline in a single week is still a situation that occurred during the previous adjustment when the bottom rebounded. If it continues to fall sharply in the next 1-2 weeks, it will definitely drag down Bitcoin's performance. A strong rebound is naturally the best case scenario, and the consolidation of narrowing volatility is not unacceptable. But if it does accelerate the downside, then you must abandon the bullish thinking and wait for lower prices and longer trading cycles instead.
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