There's no doubt that the weekend news surrounding Trump's assassination has outpaced U.S. economic data such as non-farm payroll inflation. Although the market as a whole opened calmly at the beginning of this week, this variable is likely to have affected the progress of the general election, which will trigger a series of chain reactions.
In previous poll data, Trump was ahead of Biden, but after the weekend attack, this data further widened the gap. There is even a saying that there is no suspense about Trump's election. It must be admitted that in the competition between the two "old people", Biden has almost no advantage. However, the general election in the United States is not a complete leader's charisma, nor is it simply about the amount of people's support. Therefore, our judgment is: on the premise that there are no new major variables in the follow-up, if the Democratic Party cannot find a strong replacement, then Trump will have a greater chance of winning. However, if the "two old men" themselves have a situation, it is still unknown who will win.
In terms of the impact of the market, it can be seen from Monday's opening that there is no obvious impact, and the market will still focus on the differences in long-term planning between the two parties. As we said before, considering the reduction in the number of interest rate cuts this year and the backward time node, the original plan of the Democratic Party is likely to extend the bull market cycle for more than six months. Relatively speaking, if the Republican Party comes to power, it is likely to overthrow the previous game, or at least need to dig holes in stages, and then give itself a reason to become bigger and stronger.
However, with the emergence of new variables in the election situation, the market in the second half of the year may also change. Pushing the market to a more expensive level faster will not only gain more support among some voters, but also make the possible Trump face the dilemma of "too big to fail". The choice between controllable overheating and uncontrollable overheating is in the hands of the current US government. Based on this, the previously major hot markets are likely to accelerate in the next four months, especially when the Democratic Party finds that there is no good plan or new electors to defeat Trump. It is worth mentioning that we just talked about Bitcoin's bottom area opportunities last week, and one of Trump's slogans this year is cryptocurrency-friendly president. Therefore, Bitcoin also had a good rebound over the weekend.
In the near term, we can continue to pay attention to whether U.S. data continues to provide support for progress in interest rate cuts. The latest CPI and non-agricultural payrolls both intentionally or unintentionally anchored the time of interest rate cuts in earlier months. In terms of price, I won't talk much about the U.S. stock index. Anyway, it continues to reach new highs. In terms of platform consolidation, if Bitcoin hits a record high again, we expect a wave of accelerated rise. The same situation will occur after gold hits a new high, but its intensity is expected to be relatively small.
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