After gold broke through the key suppression of 2150 in the first quarter of this year, the ultimate goal of the current round of gold pointed to at least 2600 +, and there was a possibility of 2800 +, but a further breakthrough of 3000 or higher was no longer within the scope of consideration at that time.
With the advancement of time and price, the price of gold at the beginning of this week is only about $50 away from the low-orbit target of 2,600, which seems to be at your fingertips. However, it is worth noting that the small institutions in the current rising market seem to be forming an ending wedge.
This structure usually appears at the end of the market, and after the end of the structure, there will be a rapid downward trend. Taking gold as an example, it will fall to around 2300. Of course, at this stage, the market has not entered the tail market, and naturally it will continue to look for high points amid twists and turns.
Based on this, we now prefer that gold still has a great possibility of completing the bull market target above 2600, but it is more difficult to continue to run to 2800 or 3000. In other words, even if gold still has room to rise, it is best not to choose the highest if you didn't get on the car or have a bottom position before.
At the same time, since the pattern has not yet ended, it is not advisable to open a short position on the left side. For investors who have been paying attention to us, those who are more cautious can consider starting to lighten their positions appropriately now, and increase the intensity of lightening their positions after the target level is reached. In this way, although there are some risks of missing profits, you can definitely have more initiative in the huge uncertainty at the end of the year.
In addition, compared with gold, silver has recently begun to decline relatively, which seems to indicate that the space for precious metals will not be too high. It has been said before that in the oxtail market, silver has the opportunity to make up for the gains and catch up.
At present, it is not certain whether the silver pull-up market in the first half of this year has been completed, or whether there is still a chance to peak twice. But what is certain is that the possibility of silver refreshing its all-time high is very low, and perhaps the highest upper limit is around 36.
Therefore, if there are really traders who are itchy to consider shorting, they might as well pay attention to the opportunity for silver to follow gold's rise, and take advantage of the obvious increase in short-term volatility, they should be able to find a relatively suitable entry point for silver.
Finally, as an "old bull" who is long on gold for N years, it is necessary to tell everyone that it is difficult for the market, especially the commodity market, to maintain an eternal bull market. We can't preset the positioning of long or short positions for ourselves. Once there is a possible change in the market, or there is a clear risk of reversal, we must decisively leave the market and wait and see, and don't give up a lot of fruits that have been spent a lot of time and energy in the past few years. Then give up a lot in a short period of time.
$Gold-main 2412 (GCmain) $$Silver-main 2409 (SImain) $$E-mini S& P 500-main 2409 (ESmain) $$E-mini Dow Jones-main 2409 (YMmain) $
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