[Events] NFP Week: Will the S&P 500 Hit a New High?

TigerEvents
09-02

This week, the market is gearing up for the release of the crucial Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, which could have a significant impact on the S&P 500. Today, we're inviting all Tigers to join our S&P 500 Closing Price Prediction Challenge! The first Tiger to accurately predict the S&P 500 closing price this week will win Tiger gifts.

📈 Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Data

The NFP data is a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy and often has an immediate effect on the stock market. With July's NFP numbers falling far short of expectations and the unemployment rate triggering the recession indicator with a 100% accuracy rate—the Sahm Rule—market fears have been ignited. Traders began betting on a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with predictions that rate cuts this year could exceed 110 basis points.

As a result, The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report next week will be crucial in determining the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.This data will play a significant role in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at their September 17-18 policy meeting. Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle at this meeting, with a 69% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and a 31% probability of a 50-basis-point cut.

According to Bloomberg's survey, economists generally expect U.S. August NFP employment to increase to 165,000 from 114,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, indicating resilience in the job market.

Can you predict how will  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close on Friday 6 September? The first Tiger to accurately predict the S&P 500 closing price will have the chance to win Tiger gifts.

🔮 How to Participate

  • Comment below with your prediction for the S&P 500’s direction (bullish or bearish) and your reasoning.

🎁 Prizes

  • All participants who comment with their prediction and reasoning will receive 10 Tiger Coins.

  • The first Tiger to accurately predict the S&P 500 closing price for the week will win Tiger gifts.

  • We’ll also randomly select one Tiger who shares insights or analysis on the NFP data to receive a $5 stock voucher.

⏰ Event Duration

  • September 2, 2024 - September 6, 2024, 16:00.

Take Profit as S&P Hits 5800 or Hold Till 6000?
As the stock market hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur. ---------------- Will S&P 500 hit 6000 by year-end as institutions predict? Would you take profit and stay cautious ahead or hold till the year-end?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • icycrystal
    09-02
    icycrystal
    NFP data is a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy and often has an immediate effect on the stock market.

    based on Bloomberg's survey, economists generally expect U.S. August NFP employment to increase to 165,000 from 114,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, indicating resilience in the job market.

    predicting that it'll be bullish, gotta keep the faith [Sly]

    @GoodLife99 @Shyon @Aqa @LMSunshine @koolgal @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @rL @TigerGPT

    Comment below with your prediction for the S&P 500’s direction (bullish or bearish) and your reasoning.


    🎁 Prizes


    All participants who comment with their prediction and reasoning will receive 10 Tiger Coins.

    • icycrystal: 
      please always trade cautiously and do not be aggressive. flow with the market instead of against it.

      better to go for companies with good management and with good fundamentals. as they tend to bounce back during downtime...

    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news articles I found, here are some insights and analysis on the upcoming U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data:

      Some economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the U.S. August NFP employment to increase to 165,000 from 114,000 in the previous month, with a drop in the unemployment rate. (Source: Bloomberg)

        

      ING, however, has a more conservative prediction, expecting the NFP employment to increase by just 125,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4%. They believe that if the data falls short of expectations, the U.S. dollar may weaken and there could be a possibility of a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in September. (Source: ING via WSJ)

        

      It's important to note that these predictions are based on surveys and analysis, and the actual NFP data may vary. For more accurate and up-to-date information, it is recommended to wait for the official release of the NFP data.

      Remember, the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

      If you're interested in more news and analysis related to the NFP data, you can visit the following link: NFP News

      Apologies for not being able to provide more specific details about the S&P 500 closing price for the week or the insights shared by Tigers on the NFP data for the stock voucher. However, you can continue to monitor the market and stay updated with the latest news and analysis to make informed investment decisions.

      Please note that the NFP data has the potential to have an immediate effect on the stock market, but the market reaction can vary depending on various factors and market conditions.

      Good luck with your analysis and trading activities, and always consider the risks involved in financial markets.

  • nomadic_m
    09-03
    nomadic_m
    Wishing for a bullish boost this week! Hoping the release of NFP data will propel $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to new all-time highs. Fingers crossed for a strong jobs report and a continued market rally!

    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
    $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$
    $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$
    $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$

  • Shyon
    09-03
    Shyon
    With such bullish setup after rebound from previous pullback few weeks ago, I strongly believe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has a high probability of challenging and breaking new high, predict the price range to be 5700-5780 USD! How do you think? For me, technical analysis is the best indication.
  • dsv69
    09-04
    dsv69
    i dont think SP500 will move a lot either side till the interest rate decision in mid sep 24. could get support at 5500 and will end up the week at 5560 to 5575 region. 25p reduction is already priced in. market looking for min. 50p reduction in interest rate during sep 24 meeting. unless that happens, there won't be any new highs for SP500.
    i assume the rotation from big tech will continue for a few more weeks before market start rolling  back from mid oct 24 onwards.
  • Shyon
    09-04
    Shyon
    We are somewhere nearby EMA25 and EMA50 support line for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . I believe the index will rebound here and meet some resistance around 5560 USD area towards the end of the week.
  • Universe宇宙
    09-04
    Universe宇宙
    @TigerGPT how is the inflation and employment situation in U.S., Singapore and China. Grab data from Internet if needed.
    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the latest available data:

      United States:

      The reported initial jobless claims for the week ending August 24, 2024, were 231,000.  

      The unemployment rate for July 2024 was reported at 4.3%, which was slightly higher compared to the previous month.  

      The consumer confidence index for August 2024 was reported at 67.9, indicating a slight improvement.  

      Retail sales increased by 1.0% in July 2024.  

      The core PCE price index remained stable at 2.6% in July 2024.  

      The annual CPI inflation rate for July 2024 stood at 2.9%.  

      The employment change for July 2024 was reported at 114,000, indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous month.  

      Singapore:

      The annual CPI inflation rate for July 2024 in Singapore was reported at 2.4%.  

      Singapore's foreign exchange reserves reached 378.6 billion USD in July 2024.  

      Based on the data provided, it seems that both the United States and Singapore are experiencing moderate levels of inflation, and the employment situations are relatively stable. However, please note that these economic indicators can fluctuate, and it is essential to consider multiple factors before making any investment decisions.

      As for the prediction for the S&P 500 closing price on Friday, September 6, 2024, unfortunately, I cannot provide a prediction as it is beyond the scope of my capabilities. I recommend consulting with a financial advisor or conducting thorough market research to form an informed prediction.

      Risk Disclaimer: The information provided here is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest at your own discretion and consider the risks involved.

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