Is DJT a Casino Play? Time to Short the Stock Before Election?

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10-29
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$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ shot up 21% yesterday, with a gain of 194% this month.

1. Wall Street is All-In on a Trump Victory! But is Polymarket’s Win Probability Reliable?

A Bloomberg article suggests that in Polymarket's election prediction market, a few large accounts are influencing Trump’s victory odds through concentrated bets.

These "whale" bettors, including several accounts operated by a French investor, have recently poured millions into bets on Trump.

For example, on October 17, these accounts placed $5.2 million in a 12-hour period, pushing Trump’s win probability up by about 4%.

2. Beware of the Harris Surprise Risk!

Nomura warns that the market has over-hedged for a “Trump victory,” potentially overlooking the risk of a "Harris surprise."

A “blue sweep,” where Democrats take a majority in both chambers of Congress, could be the only scenario leading to a significant market drop, with stocks potentially declining 7% to 10% in the following one to three months.

Meanwhile, stocks related to Trump’s pro-growth and deregulation themes may face closing risks, and safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies could see pressure as risk appetite wanes.

3. Will $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ Pull Back No Matter Who Wins?

Rumor has it that even bar models in New York are buying DJT, reflecting the market’s “greed” phase.

Betting on Trump and DJT seems to be the trend, with call option IV hitting over 300%. However, some investors believe that DJT could retreat even if Trump wins, as market expectations are sky-high.

After the election, we may see a “sell the news” reaction. Selling calls on DJT at $115 expiring November 15 could be a way to short volatility and collect premiums (though DJT is high-risk, so demo accounts are recommended over real trades).

Is DJT now a “casino play”?

Would you go long or short on DJT?

How do you view the Polymarket winning rates?

Will this election have unexpected results like in 2016?

Does betting on the U.S. election now mean gambling?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

US Election Wrap-up: How Will Trump Affect Market?
In the early hours of the 6th, Republican presidential candidate Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential election. ------------------- Which asset will benefit the most?
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Comments

  • MasterStonker
    10-29
    MasterStonker
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    I am long till election then it's cash in time , MAGA 🤑
  • KingWQ
    10-29
    KingWQ
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    to the moond
  • Success88
    10-29
    Success88
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    I keep the finger crossed 🤞. They might be a chance to pull back at last day before elections
  • highhand
    10-29
    highhand
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    this stock surely can short soon. no fundamentals and technicals show so many flush up candlesticks... just waiting for a bearish candlestick to form now....
  • Universe宇宙
    10-29
    Universe宇宙
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    @TigerGPT what is the target stock price range for $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$
    • TigerGPT: 

      Analysis of Trump Media & Technology (DJT)

      Business and Industry: Trump Media & Technology (DJT) is the operator of the Truth Social site. The company has recently gained significant attention due to its association with former President Donald Trump. It is difficult to tie the recent market moves to company fundamentals, as the stock's volatility may be influenced by perceptions of Trump's chances of winning the election and traders taking speculative positions.

      Earnings and Forecasts: The supplementary information does not provide specific details about the company's recent earnings and earnings forecast. It is important to consider that DJT is a relatively new company and its financial performance may be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment towards Donald Trump and the success of the Truth Social platform.

      Recent Trends: DJT has shown strong momentum in recent days, with a gain of 21% in the previous session and a 194% gain for the month. The stock closed at $47.36 (USD) on October 29, 2024. The current support price is $25.25 (USD), and the resistance price is $47.45 (USD). The average cost is $31.46 (USD). It is worth noting that these figures are based on historical data and market conditions may change.

      Analyst Viewpoints: The supplementary information does not provide specific analyst target prices for DJT. However, there are articles discussing the recent rally in DJT and its association with Trump's perceived chances of winning the election. It is important to consider both bullish and bearish viewpoints and evaluate the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in DJT.

      News Viewpoints: The provided news articles related to DJT highlight the recent rally in the stock. One article discusses the stock's significant gains since its last low and questions whether it is too late to join the party. Another article raises the question of whether DJT is a "casino play" and suggests considering shorting the stock before the election. Additionally, there are articles discussing the spike in DJT's stock price and its highest level since May.

      Overall, DJT has experienced significant price appreciation recently, but it is important to note that the stock's performance may be influenced by various factors, including the outcome of the election and market sentiment towards Trump and the Truth Social platform.

      Disclaimer: The information provided above is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in stocks involves risks, and the market can be volatile. It is important to conduct thorough research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      Click here for the article "DJT Rallying 280% Since Last Low—Is It Too Late to Join the Party?"

      Click here for the article "Is DJT a Casino Play? Time to Short the Stock Before Election?"

      Click here for the article "Trump Media Stock Spikes. DJT Now at Highest Level Since May. -- Barrons.com"

      Click here for the article "Trump Media & Technology Group Shares Advance Premarket, Extending Gains After Trump's Campaign Rally"

      Click here for the article "Trump Media & Technology Group Shares up 9.6% Premarket After Climbing 21.6% in Previous Session"

  • MHh
    10-29
    MHh
    Win 20 Tiger-coins
    Totally feels like casino play to where a DJT stock is bought to signify support for a trump win! I feel that it has gone too crazy up, that it feels like a meme stock. I won’t touch it as beyond my risk appetite. The few polymarket are manipulating the prices but not necessarily sure win. I do hope that the election results will be like 2016! I won’t be betting/ gambling on the US election.
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