News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24)
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There are an increasing number of data points that would show that the US is in a recession. The reason we can’t see it is the distortion caused by government hiring and spending Countries thrive via its private economy. Not money printer spending by the government. Non-farm payrolls today + the revisions to August and September on top of data like this below should be concerning. - X user and Billionnaire Chamath Palihapitiya
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Singapore is on the radar for 74,000 ultra-rich UK foreign residents hit by the tax change. These wealthy foreign UK residents contributed £6.2 billion in direct tax revenue in 2023 Can this lead to imported inflation for Singaporeans? - Business Times
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According to a recent SEC filing, Karp sold shares over three days, totalling approximately $254 million. - Investing dot com
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GOLD FUTURES RISE TO NEW RECORD HIGH ABOVE $2,800 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
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U.S. Q3 CORE PCE PRICES RISE 2.2% Y/Y; EST. 2.1%; PREV. 2.8% - Investing dot com
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REUTERS SOURCES: CHINA'S LEADING LEGISLATIVE BODY WEIGHS APPROVAL OF NEW FISCAL PACKAGE EXCEEDING 10 TRILLION YUAN ON NOVEMBER 8 SOURCES: CHINA INTENDS TO APPROVE RAISING NEW 10 TRILLION YUAN DEBT THROUGH SPECIAL TREASURY AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BONDS IN UPCOMING YEARS FISCAL PLAN TO ALLOCATE 6 TRILLION YUAN FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND UP TO 4 TRILLION YUAN FOR IDLE LAND AND PROPERTY ACQUISITION CHINA COULD UNVEIL ENHANCED FISCAL MEASURES IF TRUMP SECURES U.S. PRESIDENCY.
From X user The Kobeissi Letter
September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, falls to 2.1%, in line with expectations of 2.1%. Core PCE inflation was unchanged, at 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%. It has been 6 months since Core PCE has fallen. Did we really need a 50 bps cut?
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Mortgage rates are skyrocketing: The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage just jumped another 8 basis points yesterday alone. Homebuyers can now expect an average interest rate of 7.23%, up sharply from 6.70% seen just 1 month ago. In Q3 2024, the median US home sold for $420,400 which means a mortgage payment with 20% down would be $2,343/month. Including taxes and insurance, homebuyers can now expect to spend over $3,000/month. In other words, homebuyers are now spending over 50% of their post-tax income on home payments.
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