The U.S. election has entered the final stage. Although the last voting day is November 6th, there are already a lot of voting data for reference due to mail-in ballots and early voting.
Generally speaking, no candidate can win shoo-in at present. Let's wait for the results on Tuesday to observe the final changes in the market and whether supporters of both parties are satisfied with the process of the results after the final results are released. If they are dissatisfied, there may be riots similar to those in 2020, which may bring further turmoil to the market, and this turmoil may be global.
The impact of U.S. stock indexes
After the presidential election in the United States, the motivation to maintain the stability of the American stock market will gradually disappear. The continuation of the huge U.S. debt is a "big thunder" left to the new president. The market will gradually re-price the policy effects of the new president, so the turbulent period of the U.S. stock index will continue.
Even Buffett's latest announcement of positions, His cash and cash equivalents continue to hit new highs, which shows his attitude. Everyone should not be too optimistic about the medium and long-term U.S. stock index.
Technically, in the short term, the 20-week moving average (5600 points) is still an important rising channel observation line for S&P. The current adjustment before the election is not unexpected. If it drops to around 5600 points, it is necessary to focus on observation. There may be a post-election rebound here, so you can look forward to it a little.
Precious metals are still a safe-haven choice
Last week, it was emphasized that Israel and Iraq will fall into a "spiral of revenge". Without a strong third-party mediation, it is difficult to simply end it. Therefore, we should not be overly optimistic about the news of conflict easing in the market, or we may suddenly fight again.
Therefore, in the face of this uncertain news situation, gold is still the best value-preserving variety. The recent decline in gold price is a correction to the previous Trump transaction. If Trump fails to be elected, perhaps the short-term decline will erase all the gains since October. The stage adjustment low will first look at the support situation around 2600. The falling gold is still an opportunity to go long at the stage, so everyone should pay attention to it in the short term.
Strong U.S. crude oil
Oil prices are still firm in the range of 60-70 US dollars. Due to rumors that OPEC + has postponed its plan to relax voluntary production cuts, the bad news that oil prices have fallen downward is less.
Although Israel does not attack Iranian crude oil facilities is lower than market expectations, oil prices have collapsed in the short term, but there is no substantial negative effect, resulting in rapid downward fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, crude oil is still swinging sharply, but there is a dynamic balance trend with no direction. It is recommended that short-term traders try not to hold positions over the weekend when trading crude oil to avoid unnecessary losses.
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