Yiwu Index Predicts U.S. Election Outcome as Trump Merchandise Dominates Demand, Hinting at Market Rally with Decisive Win. 

$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ 

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The "Yiwu Index" from Yiwu, China,Zhejiang, is known for tracking trends based on orders for small commodities produced in the region. 

Items such as campaign hats, soft toys, and T-shirts often see surges in demand during election seasons. 

According to the Yiwu Index, the candidate with the highest volume of merchandise orders has historically aligned with the winner of the U.S. presidential election.

In 2016, although Hillary Clinton led in polls, the Yiwu Index suggested that Trump could be a "dark horse" based on the high demand for his campaign merchandise, and he indeed won. 

In 2020, however, the Index indicated a decline in Trump-related orders, which aligned with his defeat. 

Currently, Trump has a much higher volume of campaign-related orders compared to Harris. 

On Amazon, Trump-related products are reportedly outselling Harris’s by a 2-to-1 margin, reflecting his popularity from this perspective.

Furthermore, some major corporations seem to be hedging their bets on a Trump win. 

Trump himself mentioned receiving calls for assistance from Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook, over a large EU fine. 

Trump apparently promised to help Cook with the issue if he wins, implying that the EU wouldn’t receive the fine.

Trump has historically had tense relations with the EU, threatening them with tariffs and trade disputes. 

Similarly, Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai reportedly called Trump about a U.S. court’s ruling for Google to break up. 

Trump allegedly assured Pichai that a breakup wouldn’t happen if he became president. 

During Trump’s previous term, he had tensions with Facebook, which banned his account. 

Now, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly lifted the ban, restoring Trump’s account.

Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post, is notable for his media influence. 

Traditionally, The Washington Post declares its endorsement before each presidential election. This year, it was reportedly set to endorse Harris, but Bezos allegedly blocked this move.

Let's evaluate the situation on Wednesday before deciding whether to invest. The key question is: what specific conditions should we be looking at?

Typically, by around noon on U.S. election day, there’s a preliminary sense of the results. However, if by midday Wednesday no candidate has reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win, it may signal an unsettled market. In such cases, it’s wise to consider reducing positions, especially if no candidate has even crossed the 200-vote threshold by then, as the uncertainty could indicate a drawn-out process with no clear victor.

Without clarity, maintaining some buffer fund in your portfolio for defensive play is important. 

In 2000, the contested election between George W. Bush and Al Gore took 36 days to resolve. The prolonged uncertainty, combined with the dot-com bubble burst, led to a market downturn. If this year’s election also lacks a clear winner, we could see similar market volatility.

On the other hand, if Trump or Harris achieves a decisive win, markets are likely to rally. But if the race remains too close to call, dragging out the final outcome, the markets may face turbulence and instability.

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