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Weekly: US Best Thanksgiving Week Since 2008, Tech/AI Rally, December Rate Cut Hopes

Last Week's Recap1. US Market -Best Thanksgiving week since 2008Great Thanksgiving week:US stocks rallied across the board last week, with all three major indices up over 3%. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged 4.91% for the week, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained nearly 4%, marking its best Thanksgiving week since 2008. The S& 500 has risen for seven straight months, its best streak in over seven years. JPMorgan is bullish, forecasting a 20% rise by 2027.December rate cut odds rose: CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87.4% probability. Trump said Sunday he has chosen the next Fed chair and will announce soon.Easing policy tailwind: Data supports a soft landing, but with fewer official releases recently, the econo
Weekly: US Best Thanksgiving Week Since 2008, Tech/AI Rally, December Rate Cut Hopes

Weekly: AI Fears Spark Global Market Volatility Strikes

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market -Investor cautions and Tech PullbackTech pullback: The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished the week down 2.7%, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ posted smaller declines of about 2.0%.Fed cut uncertainty: Unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of an interest rate cut on December 10 increased to nearly 72%, up from about 30% earlier in the week.Volatility returns: Short-term expectations of U.S. stock market volatility surged, with the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ reachin
Weekly: AI Fears Spark Global Market Volatility Strikes

Weekly: Will Nvidia’s earnings revive the AI trade? Jobs report returns

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market - Shutdown Relief vs. AI HangoverIndexes: Equities swung sharply through the week. Early optimism over the government reopening lifted the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ to record highs, but gains faded as growth and AI stocks sold off on tempered rate-cut expectations. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ eked out gains, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed lower.Shutdown Relief: The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill extending federal spending through Jan 30 2026, ending the the longest-ever shutdown. Stocks rallied briefly on the news before profit-taking set in.Fed Tone: Officials pushed back on aggressive easing bets. St. Louis Fed President Musalem sai
Weekly: Will Nvidia’s earnings revive the AI trade? Jobs report returns

Weekly: A Optimistic November Starts with Tariffs and Fed fallout

Last Week's Recap1. U.S. Market - Strong Week Caps a Solid OctoberIndexes: U.S. stocks extended their rally for a third consecutive week, with all major indexes notching new highs amid upbeat corporate results.October Recap: Wall Street logged a sixth straight monthly gain, with the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ posted its longest winning streak since 2018, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged ~4.7%, marking seven consecutive monthly advances — its best run since 2018 — powered by Big Tech earnings. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also rose about 2.3% for the month.FOMC: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps and announced plans to end quantitative tightening by restarting balance-she
Weekly: A Optimistic November Starts with Tariffs and Fed fallout

Weekly: A Strong October End? APEC, Tech earnings, Fed meeting

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - All-Time HighsIndexes: All major U.S. indexes surged to record highs on Friday, capping a strong week driven by a cooler inflation print and robust corporate earnings. The S&P 500 topped $6,800 and gained over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq and Dow also notched their second winning week in a row despite midweek volatility.CPI: September CPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts at both remaining Fed meetings this year. Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, while core CPI advanced 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY.Earnings season: Remains the dominant short-term driver, with some official macro prints delayed.The earnings beats seen this third-quarter reporting season are driving higher-than-average equity returns, according to Bar
Weekly: A Strong October End? APEC, Tech earnings, Fed meeting

Weekly: Will The Monthly Win Be Broken? Focus on CPI, Earnings

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - All indexes ralliedIndexes: Major U.S. indexes ended the week in positive territory despite sharp intraday swings. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, rebounding as investors digested a softer U.S. tone on China trade talks and moved past Thursday’s regional bank scare. The Russell 2000 hit record highs midweek but sharply reversed as credit concerns in regional banks triggered a sell-off.VIX: The VIX spiked above 28 at Friday’s open before retreating back near 20, underscoring the market’s tug-of-war between policy headlines, tariff risks, and strong corporate earnings.Crypto: Bitcoin briefly tumbled to 103,530 on Friday, highlighting stress among speculative assets and amplifying broader market risk sentiment.Tariff Tone eases: Trump struck a more conciliatory tone,
Weekly: Will The Monthly Win Be Broken? Focus on CPI, Earnings

Weekly: Tariff Tensions Test Markets Ahead of Big Bank Earnings

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - A dramatic Sell-offIndexes: The week finished weak after a dramatic Friday sell-off. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record highs midweek, only to see gains erased in the strongest single-day decline since April after tariff headlines hit sentiment.VIX: The VIX spiked above 22, snapping nearly four months of calm, complacent grinding to new highs. The surge in volatility underscored a sudden demand for protection as risk appetite evaporated.Crypto: Crypto and crypto-exposed names were especially volatile — Bitcoin and Ethereum printed new all-time highs earlier in the week before capitulating on Friday’s risk-off move. Bitcoin plunged 6% Friday, breaking below $120,000, amplifying broader market stress.Trump’s tariff: An unexpected announcement
Weekly: Tariff Tensions Test Markets Ahead of Big Bank Earnings

Sept. Recap: AI-related and Rate-cut drove the monthly boom, breaking seasonal weakness

September just broke with the usual seasonal weakness and delivered an exceptionally strong monthly performance. The S&P 500 rose approximately 3.5% in September (the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 4.2% in September over the past five years), marking its fifth consecutive monthly gain and driving the third quarter's overall gain to 7.8%. AI and technology drove the Nasdaq's 5.6% surge in September, its sixth consecutive month of gains. A key sign of increased risk appetite was the small-cap Russell 2000 index reaching a new all-time high, its highest level since late 2021, indicating both strong momentum and increased market breadth.U.S. Stock Market Index Returns (September 2025)IndexSeptember ReturnQ3YTDDow Jones Industrial Average1.90%5.20%9.00%S&P 5003.50%7.80%13.80%Nasda
Sept. Recap: AI-related and Rate-cut drove the monthly boom, breaking seasonal weakness

Weekly: Shutdown Risk Shadows Q3 Finale; Jobs Report in Focus

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - Stalled at Record HighsIndexes: Stocks started the week at record highs, fueled by optimism over the Nvidia–OpenAI deal. But that early strength faded as the week wore on, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.31% and the Nasdaq off 0.65%, snapping a three-week winning streak.Inflation: August’s PCE inflation reading landed right on expectations (headline +2.7% y/y; core +2.9%), reinforcing the picture of inflation that’s sticky but not accelerating—enough to keep the Fed on its toes, but not enough to derail easing expectations.Powell Speech: Powell (Sept. 23) doubled down on a data-dependent approach. His remarks on economic challenges and stock valuations added to market volatility.Tariffs: President Trump announced new tariffs, including 100% duties on patented
Weekly: Shutdown Risk Shadows Q3 Finale; Jobs Report in Focus

Weekly: Fedspeak and PCE to test stock market at record high

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - Indexes at Record HighsMajor indexes: The S&P 500 (+1.22%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.21%) and Dow (+1.05%) closed the week at fresh record highs and posted their third (S&P/Nasdaq) / second (Dow) consecutive weekly gains, with the Nasdaq leading on tech strength. The benchmark average broke 6,600 and closed the week at 6,631.96. The small-cap Russell 2000 notched its seventh weekly advance.Fed rate cut: As expected, the Federal Reserve lower the policy rate by 25 bps (to a 4.00%–4.25% range) and signaled the possibility of additional cuts later in 2025. Powell’s press conference reiterated the Fed’s dual-mandate focus and emphasized labor-market risks. However, the "dot plot" projections showed policymakers were closely divided: Nine penciled in just one
Weekly: Fedspeak and PCE to test stock market at record high

Weekly: Fed's rate cut looms as markets hover at record high

Last Week's RecapU.S. Market - Indexes at Record HighsThe S&P 500 (+1.6%) and Nasdaq (+2%) logged another perfect week, both closing at record highs alongside the Dow, which topped 46,000 for the first time. The Russell 2000 also hit a nine-month high, underscoring broad market strength.Economic data reinforced Fed cut expectations: August CPI (+0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; core +0.3% / +3.1%) showed steady inflation, while PPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m (+2.6% y/y). Core PPI eased to +2.8% y/y.Labor data surprised: jobless claims surged +27k to the highest since Oct 2021, concentrated in Texas; BLS revised down payroll gains through March by -911k, cutting monthly average growth nearly in half.Futures markets now price a September Fed cut with near certainty—mostly for 25 bps, according to t
Weekly: Fed's rate cut looms as markets hover at record high

Weekly: Inflation in focus as September Fed meeting approach

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Three major indexes hit record highsU.S. stocks opened the shortened week with steep losses but rebounded to fresh records Friday, lifted by hopes that softer labor data would clear the path for Fed easing. Still, gains faded late as the weak jobs picture tempered earlier optimism.For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.33% and the Nasdaq gained 1.14%, while the Dow slipped 0.32%.August’s jobs report showed a sharp slowdown, with just 22,000 positions added versus expectations for 75,000. Unemployment climbed to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, while weekly jobless claims rose to 237,000.Markets now see a September rate cut as assured, with odds climbing for a second move in October and as much as 75 basis points of easing by year-end.The US Sectors & Stocks
Weekly: Inflation in focus as September Fed meeting approach

Weekly: Jobs report will kick off a touch month as Fed uncertainty looms

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - August wrapped up on a strong noteStocks retreated on Friday as investors booked profits ahead of the long weekend, following a new S&P 500 record and solid Nvidia earnings. New inflation data showed prices firming higher above the Fed's target in July.For the week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, despite briefly breaking above the 6,500 mark for the first time on Thursday. The Dow and Nasdaq both eased 0.2%, while small-caps stood out — the Russell 2000 rallied to an eight-month high.August wrapped up on a strong note. The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, its fourth straight monthly advance. The Dow rose 2% and the Nasdaq added 1.6%, notching a fifth consecutive winning month.The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 2.9% in July, the fastest pace sinc
Weekly: Jobs report will kick off a touch month as Fed uncertainty looms

Weekly: August could end on a high note with Nvidia earnings on tap

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Powell speech fuels market’s rallyU.S. markets broadly advanced on Friday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his Jackson Hole speech to hint at a near-term rate cut, despite mid-week fluctuations and a tech sector sell-off.For the week, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ gained 1.5%, closing at a record high. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ edged up 0.3%, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ slipped 0.6% despite a sharp +1.88% rally Friday. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 surging 3.3%, reflecting easing risk concerns.Powell acknowledged that “downside risks to employment are rising” and that the possibility of Trump’s tariffs having only a short
Weekly: August could end on a high note with Nvidia earnings on tap

Weekly: Powell's Jackson Hole speech steps into the spotlight

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - The Dow and S&P hit record highsThe major averages remained held firm over the week, as fresh inflation data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.The Dow Jones led the pack, climbing 1.74% on the back of a 12% surge in UnitedHealth. The S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%. Both the Dow and S&P touched record intraday highs on Friday before easing slightly.July inflation showed a mixed picture: headline CPI came in cooler than anticipated at 2.7% year over year, while core CPI accelerated to 3.1% — its fastest pace since February. Traders now see better than a 90% chance of a rate cut next month.On the flip side, producer prices ran hotter than expected, but upbeat retail sales and ongoing strength in
Weekly: Powell's Jackson Hole speech steps into the spotlight

Weekly: Hotter Inflation Readings Could Hobble Bullish Market Momentum

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - The Nasdaq closed at record as Apple shares ralliedU.S. stocks staged a strong rebound last week despite mixed sector performances and notable intraday volatility. The Nasdaq led the charge, closing at a record high on Friday, boosted by Apple’s rally. The S&P 500 and the Dow also ended the week higher.Apple’s surge lifted both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500’s tech sector. Shares of the iPhone maker jumped 13% after the company unveiled a new $100 billion commitment to America, a significant acceleration of its U.S. investment that now totals $600 billion over the next four years. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.4%, while the Nasdaq advanced 3.9%.Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and chips, with exemptions for companies man
Weekly: Hotter Inflation Readings Could Hobble Bullish Market Momentum

Weekly: 'August curse'? — a historically weak season

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Stocks sell-off to kick off August tradingAugust 1st saw a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 1.6% and the Nasdaq sliding around 2.2%, triggered by disappointing jobs data and newly announced tariffs. These losses followed fresh record highs earlier in the week (July 28th), capping Nasdaq's most active month for record closes since December 1999.For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.4%, marking its biggest weekly decline in months, closing near 6,280. The Dow sank 2.9%, its worst performance since April 4, while the Nasdaq slid 2.2%.The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000, falling short of the 100,000 gain expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. Previous figures were sharply revised. June job growth totaled just 14,000, d
Weekly: 'August curse'? — a historically weak season

Weekly: SP500 hit record highs;Inflation in focus as earnings season heats up

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Markets slipped as Trump unleashed new tariff waveFriday’s losses dragged the major indexes into negative territory for the week, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching fresh record highs on Thursday. Shortly after the market closed Thursday, President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and hinted at broader tariffs across multiple sectors and countries.A wave of new tariff measures, including levies on copper and products from dozens of countries, introduced policy uncertainty. However, the market reaction was muted due to delayed implementation timelines and investor confidence in resilient global demand.FOMC minutes confirmed internal Fed division: some policymakers favored July rate cuts (like Waller, Bowman), while others leaned to h
Weekly: SP500 hit record highs;Inflation in focus as earnings season heats up

Weekly: Wall Street braces for trade deadlines while market ended at record highs

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Market ended shortened week at record highsThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached new all-time highs on Thursday, capping a 5.5% gain for the first half of 2025. It marked the end of a dramatic second quarter, which began with a sharp selloff in April driven by heightened uncertainty. Since then, a 90-day tariff pause and progress on trade negotiations helped lift stocks to fresh highs.Investor rotation into non-tech sectors, the Dow rose by approximately 2.3% over the week, buoyed by strong performances in the transportation and utilities sectors.June nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating expectations of 110,000 and surpassing May’s upwardly revised 144,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, signaling continued labor market resilience. The upbeat da
Weekly: Wall Street braces for trade deadlines while market ended at record highs

Weekly: July “fireworks?” Jobs data & tariff watch

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - U.S. markets rallied to record highsU.S. stock markets ended the week at robust highs, driven by a tech-led rally, broad sector strength, a dovish Federal Reserve tone, and signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions.The S&P 500 notched fresh record highs on Friday, marking its fastest-ever rebound from a 15%+ decline, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index has gained over 20% since its April 8 low and is now up nearly 5% year-to-date.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his semiannual testimony, said that recent economic data might have already justified rate cuts, if it were not for the potential inflationary effects of tariffs. Markets are now pricing in in three or four quarter-point increments by December.Despite rising oil prices linked to re
Weekly: July “fireworks?” Jobs data & tariff watch

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