Rocket Lab vs. SpaceX: Who Will Dominate the New Space Race?

SpaceX's rival $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ made headlines with a 50% jump in stock price.

The company reported impressive Q3 results, bringing in $105 million in revenue—a 55% increase year-over-year—despite a net loss of $51.9 million, up from $40.6 million last year.

Rocket Lab has secured a multi-launch contract with a commercial satellite constellation operator, using its upcoming Neutron rocket. Scheduled for its first launch in 2025, Neutron aims to become part of the U.S. government’s $5.6 billion National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program—a high-stakes five-year initiative. With over 10,000 satellites expected to need launch services by 2030, Rocket Lab estimates this market could reach $10 billion.

Competition Heats Up in Space:

Among the few Nasdaq-listed space companies—Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit, and $Astra Space(ASTR)$ —only Rocket Lab remains active. Virgin Orbit went bankrupt, and Astra teeters on the brink, retreating from the market.

Why? Unlike their rivals, who stuck to small rocket launches (cheaper but less versatile), Rocket Lab has set its sights on the bigger market. By shifting to larger, reusable rockets, RKLB aims to compete directly with heavyweights like SpaceX.

Meet the Visionary Behind RKLB: Peter Beck

Rocket Lab's founder, New Zealand native Peter Beck, was tinkering with rockets in his early days as an apprentice at a home appliance company! His passion led him to create a “rocket bike” and later, Rocket Lab itself.

After a “rocket pilgrimage” to the U.S. in 2006, where he failed to secure positions at NASA or $Boeing(BA)$, Beck returned to New Zealand to pursue his dream of building rockets.

Fast forward to 2018, Rocket Lab became the second most frequent U.S. rocket launcher, with headquarters in California and a launch site in New Zealand.

Neutron Rocket vs. SpaceX’s Falcon Series:

With Electron already established as a cost-effective solution at $4.9 million per launch, Beck’s focus is now on Neutron, a large, reusable, carbon-composite rocket anticipated for its 2025 debut. Neutron is crafted to reduce costs and simplify launches, closely mirroring SpaceX’s Falcon rockets.

While Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches range from $67 million to $90 million, Neutron’s pricing is still a mystery, but Beck has hinted at making it a competitive SpaceX alternative.

Key Contracts Fueling RKLB’s Future:

Rocket Lab has won major contracts, further solidifying its position in the aerospace industry:

1. U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): $515 million deal to manufacture 18 satellites for the Space Development Agency’s military satellite network—its largest contract yet.

2. Synspective (Japan): 10 launches for StriX radar satellites, underscoring its dominance in small satellite launches.

3. NASA’s Lunar Gateway: Supporting NASA’s lunar outpost plans by launching a satellite into lunar orbit.

4. Varda Space Industries: Collaborating to manufacture Photon spacecraft for zero-gravity production, a cutting-edge venture that brings high-value products back to Earth.

With a market cap around $9.35 billion, Rocket Lab is back on an upward trajectory with rising volumes.

The big question: Is there still a chance to ride this rocket? 🚀📈

And what about you—are you more bullish on SpaceX (represented by $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$?) or $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$?