News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) - audit, energy, Berkshire

KYHBKO
11-17

News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24)

  • If we keep views binary and polarized, society runs the risk of being split by opinions and perspectives. We need to return to days when we can live together despite our differences. Differences do not make one enemy.

  • The Pentagon just failed its seventh audit in a row. The nation’s largest government agency is unable to fully account for its budget of over $824 billion. They don’t even know where billions of taxpayers’ money is going. Efficiency is coming - X user America

  • What DOGE brings is transparency and accountability. The taxpayers should know how the money is spent, what it is spent on, the benefits of such spending, and who the money goes to. Every government and business needs a DOGE.

  • Energy is the next area of concern for the developed and developing countries

  • Military conflicts demand courage, technology, strategy, intelligence, tactical execution and leadership for victory. Is there affordable resources with a robust supply chain to match?

  • (Bloomberg) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. bought stock in Domino’s Pizza Inc. and Pool Corp. during the third quarter as Chairman Warren Buffett cut back on some long-held investments. Shares of the two new holdings jumped in late New York trading.

  • "The supply chain issue is the biggest challenge the industry is facing," said Subhas Menon, the director general of AAPA. Turnaround times for engine maintenance are at record lengths, with airlines having to cut flights, move parts around and lease stop-gap engines or planes to keep operations ticking. - Reuters

  • Now, many of the same people who contributed to the housing market’s inequities, from the builders to the wealthy speculators, have found themselves being forced to sell their prized homes fast. - Business Times

  • GM to recall nearly 80,000 vehicles over transmission issues, NHTSA says - Reuters

  • Life is about learning, unlearning and self discovery. May you find your next season by understanding who you are, what you have and what you can do.

  • With the nation’s student loan debt at $1.6 trillion, borrowers in certain cities have an easier time managing their student loan payments than others. - Fox7Austin

Consumer Credit Delinquencies on the Rise Again - ACA International

  • Economist David Rosenberg has said that the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." By Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. X user Unusual Whales

From X user The Kobeissi Letter

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The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed the Fed Funds rate for the first time since Q4 2022. This comes as the 30-year Treasury yield has risen ~60 basis points over the last 2 months. At the same time, the Fed has cut rates two times, from 5.50% to 4.75%. In previous economic cycles, whenever the yield curve has turned positive a recession in the US occurred within months. However, this indicator can be proven wrong for the first time in history if a soft landing is achieved. Will history repeat itself once again?

Does the market get what they want? Market peak and bottom are part of market cycle. Let's research before investing, spend within our means and do not leverage.

28% of credit card users in the US are still paying off LAST YEAR'S holiday shopping. Average credit card balances are now 6.9% higher than last year and more than 20% higher than 2 years ago. 83% of Americans are expected to purchase gifts during the holiday season this year, spending $925 on average. That’s more than 217 million Americans spending over $201 billion, compared to $184 billion in 2023. Also, 49% of Americans plan to spend money on flights and hotels for the holiday season, spending $2,330 on average. That’s more than 128 million Americans spending nearly $300 billion on these travel costs. Credit card debt is set to skyrocket again.

@TigerStars

$.SPX(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?
With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?
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