Thoughs on NVDA Earnings Trading

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ was down nearly 5% after hours, then pulled back to basically pull back and stabilize around -2% afterward.This performance is also very much in line with expectations, and there are a couple of ways to look at the narrative so far:

1. Q3 earnings beat sellers by 2B, well within buyers' expectations, but Q4 guidance didn't come in at 38-39B; sellers expected 37B for Q4 and actually guided for 37B, while buyers were a bit higher.So a 5% drop first is sort of profit taking feedback;

2. Subsequently pulled back may also be some Rush-in funds are still not the overall trend is very good, and Jensen in the conference call also did not while on the Blackwell next year whether the exact completion of the capacity to climb the problem, the main still cautious (the probability is not a problem);

3. The recent overall semiconductor polarization, in addition to the head of the NVDA / DELL / MRVL and other companies, many have begun to pull back (or even a significant pullback), which will make chasing AI semiconductors this part of the funds more concentrated positions in NVDA; $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$

   

4. The stock price rose a lot in the days leading up to the earnings report, and there was no shortage of market makers selling a lot of calls, and in order to hedge against these sold calls, the market makers needed to buy the underlying shares, and if they were exercised after the expiration of these calls on Friday, the market makers might sell them, which could trigger a wave of declining stock prices;

5. BTC has recently made new highs again, diverting away quite a bit of money that would have belonged to NVDA; $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$