News and my thoughts from last week (16Dec24)
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US BANK DEPOSITS FELL TO $17.839 TLN FROM $17.906 TLN IN PRIOR WEEK.
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The US budget deficit spiked by a massive $367 billion in November 2024. This was $14 billion above the median expectation of $353 billion. For the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025, the total deficit now stands at $624 BILLION, the highest on record. This is up a staggering 64% from the $380 billion seen last year and above 2020 pandemic levels. To put this into perspective, the budget gap was 3 TIMES lower on average during the 2013-2017 period. The debt crisis is worsening. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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Entitlement can bend reality
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to 6.67% from 6.69% Applications to refinance a home loan surged 27% week to week and were 42% higher than the same week one year ago. - CNBC
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Exxon Mobil Corp has unveiled plans to increase spending to $28-$33 billion annually with a goal of lifting oil and gas output by 18% by 2030. - Oil Price
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Ray Dalio added that the indebtedness seen in the US, China and all major countries except Germany has increased at "unprecedented levels" and the amount will not be sustainable - Yahoo Finance
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Mark Bouris warns Australia now on the ‘verge of a full-blown recession’ - News AU
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Two years ago ... 3 out of 4 economists were saying we’re going into a recession,” said David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC. “They’ve really had it wrong.” - CNBC
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Realize that most are happy with the reality they have defined or the reality that others have framed for them. To go against the tide is not the norm as part of a herd mentality. It will be awesome if things can be better communicated. Truth hurts but sometimes, it's needful
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China's exports rose 6.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year ago, sharply lower than the 12.7% growth in the previous month and missing the forecast 8.5% increase. Import data surprised with a decline of 3.9%, marking the sharpest fall since September 2023, missing analysts' expectation of a 0.3% growth. - CNBC
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