What to expect from this week's Fed meeting

This Thursday night is the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting. The continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points at this meeting has been fully expected by the market, so the market focus will be on the wording of the Fed meeting announcement and the content of Powell's subsequent speech.

As Trump will officially take office next year, how the chairman of the Federal Reserve deals with this "new" president is also one of the key points of this meeting. To put it simply, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid "political" issues with a neutral position at this meeting. The media are happy to speculate whether the Federal Reserve is with the new president. " Whether to "do it or" refuse it "is a completely different result for the path of future interest rate cuts, so I'm afraid the fluctuation this week is not small, so pay attention to the fluctuation.

1. Impact on US stock indexes

In the cycle of interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock index is usually not under great pressure, but in the short term, if the market believes in Powell's wording that the rate of interest rate cuts will slow down in the future, or even suspend interest rate cuts, it will have a certain short-term negative effect on the U.S. stock index, which may trigger a small correction.

Technically, we still rely on the 20-day moving average for tracking processing. The current S&P index is close to the 20-day moving average. If it breaks quickly, it means that a small adjustment of the index has begun. The small adjustment is not to let everyone clear their positions, but to lay out next year's market according to the adjustment range. At the same time, pay attention to Trump's main policy direction after taking office to see which index is more likely to make profits.

2. The impact of the Federal Reserve meeting on gold

Recently, the price of gold has fluctuated very frequently and with large volatility. When it rises, it is said that geopolitical conflicts are resurfacing, and when it falls, it is said that the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is blocked.

Generally speaking, the reasons are not sufficient. This frequent and large fluctuation shows that large amounts of funds have sharp differences on the current price of gold, and both long and short funds are very determined (if they are not determined, the price fluctuations will not be so violent), which makes the current gold price a bit of a "fight between gods".

Technically, the price of gold is still above the 20-week moving average, but the delay in rising increases the possibility of a downward breakthrough of the price of gold. Once it is broken, the top of the stage of the price of gold will be determined, and the decline and time will be relatively large.

In short, whether it's the adjustment after rising to 3000 or the adjustment now, let's still look at the 20-week moving average as the standard. When the position is broken, everyone can do the corresponding hedging work. When the adjustment is in place (according to the evaluation of the firm offer situation, it may be close to 20% according to historical statistics), it is a good time to buy the bottom again.

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