2025 is coming soon, and I wish all investors a successful start!!!
Different from previous years, since January 2025, the financial market has ushered in an important drama. Trump, the "new emperor", will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and the policies and measures implemented after his inauguration will become the focus of the financial market in the future.
Because Trump, a businessman, is good at negotiation and flexibility, before the policy is fully implemented, the variables are still large, so the financial market will also cause corresponding fluctuations due to this change. Of course, after the fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the opportunity.
Will U.S. stocks undergo deep adjustments?
I have seen some analysis reports recently, and I am not very optimistic about the trend of US stocks. Admittedly, it is not an exaggeration to say that there is a bubble.
However, since Trump won the election, the U.S. stock index has not undergone a major adjustment, indicating that the market is still more optimistic about the economic policies implemented by Trump after he took office (the result will be discussed later), which leads to the fact that the U.S. stock index will still be difficult to have big bad news for a while, leading to its sharp adjustment.
Therefore, in the first quarter of the U.S. stock index, I tend to still be Trump's honeymoon period, and the U.S. stock market is generally stable. However, if the follow-up implementation of Trump's policy is blocked, or even "singing devil's advocate", the market will be more chaotic and adjusted. Everyone should pay attention to the overall market wind direction.
Technically, the guidance of the U.S. stock index is the same as last week. The medium and long-term trend can continue to track the 20-week moving average, so there is no need to worry too much.
Pay attention to the opportunity to grind the bottom of US soybeans
I haven't talked to you about topics related to agricultural products for a long time, and the market has been followed up, but the trend is as bottoming out as expected before.
I know that everyone is not interested, so I talk less. However, starting from January, everyone should start keeping a close eye on it, because January-March has entered the critical time for soybean planting in South America. In short, it's time to speculate on the weather again. In the last week, both U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean meal rebounded, which stems from a piece of news that Argentina's soybean growing areas encountered dry weather, and the market lowered the production of Argentine soybeans in South America, which led to a sharp rebound in U.S. soybean meal (Argentina protects the domestic soybean processing industry, Therefore, it is forbidden to export raw beans, However, soybean meal and soybean oil can be exported, so weather problems are reflected in soybean meal).
Although some evidence is still needed to determine whether the upward trend is still needed (the persistence of bad weather), the farther away from the low point, the stronger the rebound, so it can be determined that the bottom range of US soybeans is near the previous low, so when the price of US soybeans falls back to When it returns to the low level of the range, it is advisable to intervene and wait for the market to bloom, so as to save chasing after the high during the pulse, resulting in large fluctuation losses.
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