$Alibaba(BABA)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ $VNET Group(VNET)$ 🐲🇨🇳🔥 From Consolidation to Catapult: Is Alibaba About to Rewrite Its 2017 Script? 🔥🐲🇨🇳🔥

A strong overnight surge, a textbook bullish reversal, and historical symmetry all line up. Alibaba may be setting up for its next great run, and this time, with AI, geopolitics, and technicals all working in tandem.

📈 Morning Star Meets 50WMA: A Bullish Confluence Appears

Zoom in on the weekly chart and you’ll spot it: a classic morning star reversal formation right as $BABA kisses the 50-week moving average ($106.87) and bounces with conviction. That candle pattern, widely respected among technicians, signals a potential trend reversal from recent weakness, especially when paired with Monday’s explosive 8.07% jump to $116.95.

That price action was no fluke. The weekly structure shows price respecting the longer-term moving average while volume increases, matching a similar sequence seen in Q4 of 2016 before Alibaba’s explosive 2017 rally. And like clockwork, the same fundamental and geopolitical backdrops are falling into place again.

💰 Call Flow Erupts: $115 Is Now the Line in the Sand

Options traders have spoken, loudly. Today’s flow was dominated by call activity, with $3.2M in premium deployed across 100% bullish trades. Notably, multiple sweeps hit the tape across the $114 to $120 strikes, including:

• $259K Sweep on 700 contracts at the 120C (Aug expiry)

• $202K Split on 105C (Aug 1 expiry)

• $162K Sweep on 1,319 contracts at 119C (Jul 25 expiry)

These weren’t passive plays. This was aggressive accumulation across mid- and near-term maturities. The psychological and structural level to watch is $115, both as intraday support and as the springboard for a leg higher.

💡 History Rhymes: 2017 Redux in Motion?

When Trump took office in early 2017, the market priced in reduced regulatory headwinds and improved trade conditions with China. The result: a meteoric $BABA rally from $87 to $318.31 within 2 years.

Fast-forward to 2025, Trump is once again pushing détente over decoupling, and chip exports are resuming. Nvidia’s H20 sales into China are back on the table, with Alibaba Cloud directly benefiting from renewed access to advanced AI compute.

US-China trade cooperation is easing across the board. Tuesday’s surge in US-listed Asian equities reflects this tailwind:

• $BIDU: +8.5%

• $VNET: +7.5%

• $HUYA: +7.2%

• $BABA: +5.8%

The S&P Asia 50 ADR Index rose 1.09%, a rising tide lifting structurally sound boats like Alibaba.

📊 Valuation Still Screams Undervalued

Unlike its 2017 self trading at 28x forward earnings, $BABA today offers a rare combination:

• PE: 16.3x

• PEG: 0.86

• Tiger Value Score: 73

This isn’t speculative growth, it’s deep value with optionality. The market is still pricing in regulatory overhangs that are actively easing, especially with Beijing softening on big tech and promoting AI as a national growth engine.

📉 Momentum Indicators Aligning

From the Tiger Trading platform weekly view:

• RSI(6): 54.66 with rising slope

• RSI(12): 52.55

• MACD histogram curling upward from -4.38 with bullish crossover potential

• MA cluster forming just beneath price, with 10W and 20W MAs tightly coiled between $114 and $120

Price holding and bouncing from this region could convert resistance at $120 into near-term support, setting the stage for a break toward $134, then $148.43, the previous cycle high.

🧠 Structural Mirror: The 141-Bar Blueprint

Perhaps the most compelling visual clue lies in the long-term Heikin Ashi weekly chart. $BABA has completed a second 141-bar consolidation, identical in structure and duration to the one seen from 2015 to 2017. Both consolidations resolve from the same base, and both follow steep declines.

This symmetry suggests the recent bottom wasn’t a fluke, it was a base. The post-consolidation breakout is already underway.

⚙️ AI Is the New Catalyst: Alibaba Cloud’s Inflection Point

🇨🇳 Resumption of Nvidia’s H20 shipments won’t just restore Alibaba Cloud’s AI roadmap, it supercharges it. Bottlenecks in compute power were stalling large-scale deployment of generative AI workloads across Alibaba’s ecosystem. That constraint is now lifting.

Expectations are rising that Alibaba will announce accelerated AI and model training initiatives through Q3 to Q4. This becomes a story of margin expansion, not just revenue growth.

🧭 Strategic Summary:

• Breakout trigger: Holding above $120 with strong candle close

• Near-term resistance: $134.09, $148.43

• Key supports: $115.00 (flow confirmation), $110.69, 50WMA at ~$106.80

• Bull thesis invalidation: Weekly close below $101

📌 I ALWAYS buy time. That hasn’t changed. I want the macro, technicals, and fundamentals in my favour, and this setup ticks all three boxes.

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