$Micron Technology(MU)$ Iโm zeroed in on $MU as it delivers a textbook weekly bull flag breakout. Price has ripped through the descending channelโs upper boundary and is holding above the $110โ$113 pivot zone, with the all-time high anchored VWAP acting as a perfect pivot. On the weekly chart, resistance sits at $121.30 and $131, with downside support at $113.50, $109.00, and $104.00. The 4H chart shows price exploding above both Keltner and Bollinger bands, with EMA13 at ~$112, EMA21 at ~$113, and EMA55 at ~$115 now stacking as rising support. MACD momentum has flipped firmly bullish. RSI is pushing higher toward overbought but still leaving room for extension. This is the definition of a liquidity flush that transitions into sustained upside.
๐ Chart Breakdown
๐ฐ Earnings Snapshot
Micronโs last quarterly report delivered revenue of $9.30B, topping expectations, with EPS of $1.91 versus $1.57 estimated. Net margin came in at ~18.4% and ROE at ~13.6%. Data centre DRAM sales hit record highs, doubling YoY, and high-bandwidth memory revenue surpassed the $1B milestone in Q2 FY2025.
๐ฅ๏ธ Segment Revenues
HBM growth is now a core pillar, with management expecting HBM share to expand to 20โ25% by year-end. Data centre DRAM is driving top-line momentum, alongside AI infrastructure demand that shows no signs of slowing.
๐ฆ Flow & Institutional Moves
Institutional inflow ratio sits near 51% with major block buys recorded. JPMorgan lifted its PT from $135 to $165 (Overweight), while Citi, Susquehanna, Deutsche Bank, and Cantor have all raised targets to the $150โ$160 range. Consensus now averages around $146, with the high end at $210.
๐ Valuation Check
P/E is ~21.4x, price-to-free-cash-flow is elevated above 64x given FCF of ~$1.9B. Forward revenue CAGR is +28%, operating income is projected to grow +158%, and net income +169% over the next three years. Rule of 40/80? Revenue growth is dominant, FCF yield compressed; this is growth-first positioning into a market reckoning for semiconductor capacity.
๐ฐ Analyst PTs & Sentiment
Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight, UBS lifted to $155, Mizuho reaffirmed Outperform with $150 PT, and Bernstein remains constructive but notes tariff application details are still murky. Barronโs flags SK Hynix doubling HBM sales as MUโs market share push accelerates. Social sentiment is running heavily bullish into this breakout, with real-time chatter focusing on tariff immunity and AVWAP pivot strength.
๐ Macro Catalyst โ Credibility Reset
President Trump announced a 100% semiconductor tariff, with exemptions for companies building in the US. Thatโs a direct boost for Micron, which has committed $200B to US production. TSMCโs $165B Arizona investment, Nvidiaโs $500B US AI infra plan, and TIโs $60B US expansion join the same immunity club. This is a credibility reset for domestic fabs, and a market reckoning for those without US manufacturing.
๐ ETF Exposure
$MU is a top-five holding in $SMH and also weighted in $QQQ, giving ETF flows an amplified effect on its momentum as AI and domestic manufacturing allocations increase.
โ๏ธ Competitive Thesis
Against fabless peers like AMD and Qualcomm, Micronโs US fab operations remove tariff headwinds entirely. Versus Intel, Micronโs HBM and DRAM growth is less capex-intensive and faster scaling. This detachment from typical semiconductor cyclicality is why Iโm tactically confident MU can lead peers through this policy shift.
๐ My Trade Plan
Iโm buying dips into $110โ$113, with a primary target of $131 and secondary upside to $146โ$165, stretch to $200. Iโm extremely confident this signals exhaustion of the prior downtrend. Stop sits just under weekly VWAP (~$110). Any tariff-related dip will be my cue to scale in.
Conclusion
This isnโt divergence; itโs detachment. Iโm betting MU fades only into the $110โ$113 pivot before ripping to $165+.
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