My Investing Muse (11Aug25)
Layoffs & Closure news
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Two years into his tenure, Bayer has reduced its headcount by more than 12,000, with little slowdown in the pace of dismissals. - FiercePharma
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Multiple Kentucky Whiskey Distilleries File for Bankruptcy - NewsWeek
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National transport and logistics company XL Express has gone into liquidation after 35 years in business. It has collapsed owing almost $42m in estimated debts, with about 200 employees to be left without jobs. - Yahoo Finance (AU)
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The US lost 37,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three months. Trump’s trade wars & tariffs are allegedly about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America. And US labor force participation is 62.2%. So… 37.8% of Americans are not working! - X user S.L. Kanthan
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From the 800,000 people who lost their jobs, some will try their hands at trading and investing as they look for the next job. This can be one reason why there is such #buying momentum coming from Main Street (retail investors). Research before investing.
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Nayara Energy faces severe fuel supply disruptions as shipowners halt operations due to EU sanctions linked to its Russian ownership. This forces the company to seek government assistance for alternative shipping solutions to maintain fuel distribution to key Indian demand centres. - Times of India
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The US services employment is SHRINKING: The ISM Services PMI Employment index fell to 46.4 points, one of the lowest readings since the 2020 Crisis. Employment has now contracted in 4 out of the last 5 months. This has rarely happened outside of a recession in the past. - X user Global Markets Investor
The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.
Debts & Delinquency
An estimated $500 billion of residential mortgage principal is delinquent (30+ days past due). Of that, around $200 billion is seriously delinquent or in formal foreclosure.
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US household debt rose $185 billion, to a record $18.4 TRILLION in Q2 2025. In 10 years, household debt has surged by a MASSIVE $7 TRILLION.
Debt and delinquency look to continue their upward trend.
My final thoughts
Different ones have been raising their concerns about the US economy:
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. economy is “on the precipice of recession”
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Total household debt in the U.S. increased by $185 billion in the past three months, reaching a total of $18.39 trillion at the end of June, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. - KCRA
It’s clear the economy is slowing down badly, and yet the market continues to hit new highs daily.
The market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
Hedging can be a good consideration, especially with the USD’s devaluation of 11% from 2025 (YTD).
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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