My Investing Muse (11Aug25) Layoffs & Closure news Two years into his tenure, Bayer has reduced its headcount by more than 12,000, with little slowdown in the pace of dismissals. - FiercePharma Multiple Kentucky Whiskey Distilleries File for Bankruptcy - NewsWeek National transport and logistics company XL Express has gone into liquidation after 35 years in business. It has collapsed owing almost $42m in estimated debts, with about 200 employees to be left without jobs. - Yahoo Finance (AU) The US lost 37,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three months. Trump’s trade wars & tariffs are allegedly about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America. And US labor force participation is 62.2%. So… 37.8% of Americans are not working! - X user S.L. Kanthan From the 800,000 people who lost

News and my thoughts from the past week (11Aug25) China’s ton-class drone delivers supplies to offshore oil platforms 150km off the coast. A great leap in efficiency: 8 hours by ship compared to less than 1 hour by drone. China’s exports defy trade war headwinds in July as growth surges to 7.2% China’s exports beat market forecasts in July as rising shipments to Europe, Africa and Latin America offset the impact of US tariffs - SCMP Image The US economy is splitting in two. There’s a rip-roaring AI economy. And there’s a lacklustre consumer economy. - Macro: Last quarter, spending on AI outpaced the growth in consumer spending - Stocks: In the last two years, ~60% of equity returns have come from “AI-related” companies, esp the hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta (per JPM) - Micro: Accord

Thematic investing—once a niche corner of the market—is rapidly evolving into one of the most influential forces shaping portfolio construction today. Far from simply buying slices of established sectors or geographies, investors are increasingly casting their nets over big-picture megatrends: everything from artificial intelligence and clean energy to aging demographics and food security. What was once the domain of boutique managers has burst into the mainstream, with a tidal wave of exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds sponsoring portfolios built around disruptive technologies, social change, and even whimsical concepts like “pets & animal welfare.” As the global economy reorients in the post‐pandemic era, thematic investing has matured from marketing gimmick to legitimate

Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Jun25) Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a reversal to the downtrend is coming. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term. The CMF is positive at 0.07, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. The daily interval is showing a “Buy" rating for the S&P 500 index. 12 indicators show a “Buy” rating, and 5 indicators show a “Sell” rating. Here are the recent candlestick patterns. Outlook and Implications (from Grok) Short-Term Outlook: Th

⚡ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   pops 20 %—time to hedge or fade the fear? The Israel-Iran headlines jolted the “fear gauge” from 14 to 16-plus—its biggest one-day jump in months. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still in “Greed” at 61, a classic warning that complacency may be peaking. Why a little protection makes sense 1. Vol has been crushed all year: VIX < 15 most of Q2 means short-vol trades are crowded. 2. Dealer gamma flip: Once VIX clears ~17, options desks switch from net sellers to net buyers of volatility, amplifying moves. 3. Macro landmines: CPI tomorrow, then the Fed's dot plot—either could send VIX toward 18–20 quickly. Picking your weapon VIXY (1× long-vol ETN) • Slower decay; best for a 1- to 4-week hedge. UVXY

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Since May, the VIX has been lounging below 25, a picture of calm in the storm of markets. But today, it roared awake, surging 18% to 21.08 after Israel’s airstrike on Iran shook the geopolitical chessboard. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index, comfortably in the “Greed” zone at 61 for over a month, suggests investors are still sipping optimism through a straw. So, what’s the play? Does this VIX spike signal a market pullback worth betting on with VIXY or UVXY? Let’s unpack the chaos and find out if volatility is your golden ticket. The VIX Wake-Up Call The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tracks market expectations for S&P 500 swings over the next 30 days, distilled from options pricing. Today’s 18% leap to 21.08—the h

My Investing Muse (16Jun25) Layoffs & Closure news VA signs a $726K agreement with OPM to help lay off 80,000+ employees. - House Veterans’ Affairs Democrats This is the prequel to market consumption and production demand. Supply chain is the blood of the economy. Without which, goods & services do not reach consumers and users. Layoffs in the supply chain precede layoffs in other sectors. US job postings continue to fall: Job postings on Indeed dropped to the lowest in 4 YEARS at the end of May. Moreover, new job postings hit near the lowest level since December 2020. Both metrics have declined for 3 consecutive years. US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024: US private payrolls rose 0.6% Y/Y in 2024, according to the BLS's QCEW data covering 97% of employers. This

Agreed

Don't waste your energy or effort on this vix, it's only a trap from the bug crocodile move what they are finding some place for money laundering. You will regret it 1 day if you buy it 

The CBOE Volatility Index ( $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ ) just exploded 18% to 21.08, its highest level since May 23, 2025, shattering its months-long slumber below 25. The trigger? Israel’s airstrike in the Middle East, sending shockwaves through global markets. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index holds steady at 61, parked in “Greed” territory for over a month. This clash of signals—rising volatility versus stubborn optimism—begs the question: is a market pullback looming, and are VIXY or UVXY your golden tickets to cash in? Let’s unpack the madness and plot your next move. Why the VIX Is Screaming The VIX, nicknamed the “fear index,” gauges expected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days via options pricing. Today’s 18% leap reflects tr

⚡️ VIX pops 20 % — Is it finally hedge-time with VIXY or UVXY? The Israel–Iran flare-up jolted the VIX from 13.8 to 16.5 — its first >18 % jump since April. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still sitting at 61 (“Greed”), a classic cocktail for complacent longs. 🧐 Why this spike matters 1. Compressed volatility all year (VIX < 15 most of Q2) leaves positioning skewed to short-vol trades. 2. Dealer gamma flips around VIX ≈ 17; option desks go from net sellers to net buyers of vol, amplifying moves. 3. Macro landmines ahead: May CPI (tomorrow) + FOMC dots. A surprise on either can push VIX through 18 fast. 🏹 Choosing your weapon VIXY (1× long) • Lower decay, gentler ride. • Best for multi-week hedges or portfolio ballast. UVXY (1.5× leveraged) • Pops harder on day-one spikes. • Bleeds

🌟🌟🌟After weeks of calm, Fear has jolted investors awake!  The VIX volatility Index which had remained below 25 since May, suddenly spiked 18%, reacting to Israel's air strike on Iran.  Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index, comfortably sitting in the Greed zone for a month, now edges towards caution at 61. Is this just a momentary shake up or a sign that markets are about to turn?  For traders looking to hedge against a downturn, the VIX might be the key tool to capitalise on growing uncertainty. VIXY versus UVXY: Which one to choose? VIXY $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$  provides direct exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index, tracking one month VIX Futures. UVXY 

On local time June 12th, tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated. Israel launched a military operation against Iran, an action that instantly "set the whole region on edge."Israel has launched strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, including major nuclear enrichment facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that a military operation codenamed "Operation Rising Lion" was launched against Iran, aimed at paralyzing Tehran's nuclear program.Source: Wall Street JournalIt's important to note that the Middle East is one of the world's most critical crude oil production regions, and the Strait of Hormuz is the "lifeline" for oil transportation. About one-third of the world's seaborne oil passes through here.With the situation now on a hair trigger, the market has panicked. Inves

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The S&P 500 just punched through 6,000, a level that’s got Wall Street buzzing. Is this the launch of a relentless climb to uncharted highs, or a warning flare for a sharp drop? With the US CPI data dropping this week, the market’s next move could hinge on a single report. Will it head north to glory or south to a correction? Let’s unpack the momentum, the risks, and what’s riding on inflation to see if new highs are in the cards. 6,000: Rocket Fuel or Roadblock? Hitting 6,000 is a big deal—a psychological milestone that screams strength. Round numbers like this often ignite buying frenzies, pulling in fresh capital. But they can also mark turning points where exhaustion sets in. Upside Momentum: If 6,000 becomes a solid ba