🔥📉 🩸 CoreWeave lock-up expiry fuels heavy put flow and valuation stress 🩸 📉🔥

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Navitas Semiconductor Corp(NVTS)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ 🩸High conviction short-term pressure meets structural red flags as $CRWV faces its largest post-IPO share unlock, deepening an already aggressive options-driven sell-off.

📆 Event Snapshot

At 02:07 on 15Aug25 Auckland time, $CRWV traded at $101.85, down 13.49% intraday, extending a two-day slide following Q2 results and ahead of the 15Aug25 lock-up expiration. Approximately 84% of Class A shares, held largely by insiders and key supplier Nvidia, become tradable on Friday, 16Aug25 NZ time. This liquidity surge hits a market already questioning accounting quality and cash conversion. Options data shows over $12M in single-leg puts within ≤90DTE, heavily concentrated in $90–$105 strikes.

First major post-IPO share unlock; 84% of Class A shares hitting the market.

💵 Financials & momentum

CoreWeave reported H1 2025 revenue of $2.194B, up 275.7% YoY, yet GAAP net loss was −$605.15M (−$0.60 per share). Q2 revenue hit $1.213B vs $395.37M in Q2 2024 (+206.7% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA printed $753M at a 62% margin, achieved by excluding $559M in depreciation, $267M in interest, and $145M in stock-based comp; nearly $1B in real costs. Accounts receivable rose from $416.526M at 31Dec24 to $1.933698B at 30Jun25, a $1.517B jump, equating to just 32% cash conversion of reported revenue. No updated guidance beyond prior expansion plans. GAAP P/E is not meaningful; on an EV/S basis, the annualised run-rate is ~$4.39B.

Adjusted EBITDA flips a GAAP loss into a 62% margin by excluding nearly $1B of costs.

$1.5B accounts receivable increase in six months; 32% cash conversion of H1 revenue.

Q2 revenue +206.7% YoY but GAAP net loss −$290.5M.

📊 Technical setup & trade triggers

4H Keltner and Bollinger overlays show price breaking below mid-channel support at $112, targeting lower channel support near $98. EMA stack is bearish with 13EMA < 21EMA < 55EMA. RSI sits in the low 30s. Invalidation for short bias is above $118 where prior breakdown aligns with AVWAP. Volume profile gaps open downside to $91 and $84 if $100 breaks on a closing basis.

4H breakdown below $112 with RSI low 30s; trigger is a daily close under $100, invalidation above $118.

📈 Options flow & volatility context

Net Drift shows puts $12.15M vs calls $194.11K with the underlying at $105.64 on 14Aug25 US time. On 15Aug25 Auckland time between 03:24 and 04:33, BlackBoxStocks recorded repeated put sweeps and blocks:

• 463× 95P 15Aug25 block, IV 244

• 782× 100P 15Aug25 sweep, IV 238

• 397× 100P 15Aug25 sweep, IV 235

• 498× 90P 15Aug25 sweep, IV 252

• 202× 105P 15Aug25 block, IV 236

Counterflow was limited to a 105C sweep at IV 181 and 100C prints at IV 174.

At 02:07 on 15Aug25 NZ time, Unusual Whales logged two large blocks: 1,221× 120P 22Aug25 at $18.28 ($2.232M) and 1,221× 110P 22Aug25 at $11.28 ($1.377M). The 107P 22Aug25 contract saw 2,556 volume vs 123 OI, avg $7.85, IV 163%.

Puts $12.15M vs calls $194.11K shows a decisive downside premium.

Intense short-dated put sweeps in $90–$105 strikes with IV 235–252.

Two 22Aug25 put blocks, $2.232M at 120P and $1.377M at 110P.

107P 22Aug25: vol 2,556; OI 123; avg $7.85; IV 163%.

📡 Peer & sector context

Related Stocks panel at capture showed: CRWV $102.10 −13.30%, NVTS $7.04 −4.37%, SOUN $16.12 −2.30%. While NVTS and SOUN declined, neither saw comparable options intensity. $CRWV’s inclusion in AI-focused ETFs exposes it to passive flow selling if price weakness persists. Nvidia’s role as both supplier and shareholder amplifies sentiment impact.

CRWV underperforms peers NVTS and SOUN, reflecting idiosyncratic pressure.

🌏 Macro & geopolitical tie-ins

Tight US monetary policy sustains higher yields, pressuring high-growth, loss-making tech. USD strength weighs on foreign capital flows into US-listed AI plays. Potential US accounting oversight tightening could challenge vendor-financing-style structures used in hyperscaler contracts.

🚀 Strategic & competitive positioning

CoreWeave operates specialised GPU cloud infrastructure for AI workloads but functions effectively as an off-balance-sheet style capacity layer for hyperscalers. The surge in receivables indicates a vendor-financing dynamic, where compute is delivered on extended terms, elevating counterparty and working capital risk. Without stronger GAAP profitability and faster receivable turnover, valuation multiples remain fragile.

📌 Scenario tree with probabilities

• Base case (50%): Lock-up selling drives $CRWV to $91–$94 within 2–3 weeks before stabilisation.

• Bear case (35%): Intensified selling and potential downgrades push into $84–$88 by end-Sep25.

• Bull case (15%): Institutional absorption post-unlock lifts above $118 within a month.

Change trigger: Confirmed institutional buy signal in options or dark pool activity above $118 with improving receivable turnover.

⚠️ Risk register & mitigation

• Accelerated insider selling post-unlock (monitor Form 4 filings)

• Liquidity squeeze from low cash conversion ratios

• Regulatory or audit scrutiny of accounting adjustments

Traders can track volume shelves, IV crush potential post-event, and hedging cost shifts to manage exposure.

📚 Sources

CoreWeave SEC filing, 30Jun25; Company balance sheet and income statement exhibits, 30Jun25; Unusual Whales trade tape and 107P contract page, 14–15Aug25 NZ time; BlackBoxStocks options tape, 15Aug25 NZ time; Net Drift screenshot, 14Aug25 US time; Yahoo Finance video “CoreWeave stock sell-off day 2: CEO has a message for the bears,” 14Aug25; Related Stocks panel capture, 14Aug25.

I’m leaning toward continued near-term downside into and after the lock-up given the alignment of heavy put flow, deteriorating technicals, and weak cash conversion fundamentals. Any reversal would require clear institutional absorption above $118 with concurrent improvement in AR turnover.

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CoreWeave Below $100?! Oversold on Lock-up Expiration?

CoreWeave will face its first major post-IPO share unlock on Friday, with approximately 84% of its Class A shares becoming tradable. These shares are primarily held by company insiders and key supplier Nvidia. The large influx of shares into the market could trigger further selling pressure. The stock fell below $100 yesterday and rebounded a little in the overnight trading. Questions: Is it oversold on lock-up expiration news? Is it a buy under $100?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Hen Solo
08-15
Hen Solo
📉The $CRWV drop through $112 and aiming for that $100 trigger fits perfectly with the skew you’re seeing in options flow. The $NVTS and $SOUN peer check makes it even clearer that this is name-specific pressure and not a broad sector hit.
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  HS Spot on, this is isolated to $CRWV. The $112 breach and $100 trigger line up perfectly with that options skew. Peer softness in $NVTS and $SOUN is mild, confirming the sell-off is company-specific, not sector-driven.
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  🙏 Thanks for taking the time to read my post HS. Your interest in this kind of market analysis motivates me to keep sharing deeper insights and perspectives.
Tui Jude
08-15
Tui Jude
That $CRWV GAAP loss vs adjusted EBITDA spread is one of the widest I’ve seen since the $SNOW post-IPO period. When the market’s this loaded on puts with IV in the 240s, it’s hard to see the upside unless they clear the $118 level you marked.
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  TJ That GAAP vs adjusted spread is unsustainable. Stripping out nearly $1B in actual costs distorts reality, and with IV in the 240s, positioning says the street expects further downside unless we see strong buying above $118.
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  💥 Thanks for taking the time to go through my post TJ. Every engaged reader adds depth to the conversation and helps refine these market frameworks.
Kiwi Tigress
08-15
Kiwi Tigress
That AR jump in $CRWV is straight up a cash flow red flag and the options market is screaming it with those 22Aug25 puts getting hit for millions. If it can’t hold $100 in the next couple sessions I’d expect the volatility to push IV even higher, maybe into the 260s, and that would drag in more short-term momentum traders.
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  🌊📢Thanks for amplifying, KT! Each repost fuels the collective brainpower, letting us navigate the pulse of the market together 🧠📈🍀🍀🍀
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  KT The AR spike paired with concentrated put buying is telling. If $100 gives way on a close, IV expansion could snowball. That kind of setup often accelerates short-term momentum, especially with sentiment this one-sided.
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Cool Cat Winston
08-15
Cool Cat Winston
Another great article BC 😻 I’m looking at that $CRWV cash conversion you highlighted and it’s wild to think they’re only pulling in about 32 cents on the dollar. That sort of AR balloon reminds me of when $PLTR had to frontload contracts and it crushed their cash flow. Definitely lines up with the heavy put flow you spotted!
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  CCW I agree, that 32% cash conversion is a major red flag. It’s essentially vendor financing at scale, and with AR swelling that fast, liquidity strain becomes a real risk. The market’s put bias here is reacting exactly to that structural weakness.
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  🌟 Thanks for reading my article CCW. Having readers who value a thoughtful approach to market structure and risk management makes these discussions worthwhile.
Queengirlypops
08-15
Queengirlypops
way $CRWV flipped a near $300M GAAP loss into a $753M “profit” just by cutting out almost $1B in real costs is textbook aggressive accounting. With $NVTS and $SOUN barely moving compared to that drop, it’s obvious the selling is concentrated here and the puts are telling the real story.
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  That accounting gap is a credibility risk. Turning a huge GAAP loss into positive adjusted EBITDA by excluding $1B in costs signals the market’s right to discount the print. The peers’ stability only sharpens the focus on $CRWV’s weakness.
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  🌟🤩✨Thanks for reading my post Q. Meaningful market dialogue comes from shared curiosityand I value the opportunity to connect with others who think strategically.