Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 18Aug25)
Public Holidays
There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, the United States, or Hong Kong.
Observations
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Speech: On Friday, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak. His comments may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, based on recent data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP.
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FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its most recent meeting this week. This document offers a detailed look into the committee's discussions and could signal the potential direction for interest rates.
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Economic Indicators:
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is forecast at 5.9, indicating an expectation of further contraction in the manufacturing sector.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, with a forecast of 49.9, suggests a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector.
The S&P Global Services PMI is forecast at 53.3, which points to an expansion in the global services sector.
Existing Home Sales are projected to be 3.92 million units, a slight decrease from the previous 3.93 million. This figure is a key indicator of the health of the residential real estate market.
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Initial Jobless Claims should be closely watched after the job numbers revision last Friday spooked the market.
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Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.
Earnings Calendar (18Aug25)
Let us look at ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.
Technical and Analyst Outlook for the Stock
The stock's technical analysis indicates a "Sell" rating. This view is supported by the consensus of analyst sentiment, which also carries a "Sell" recommendation. The collective price target is set at $14.23, which represents a potential downside of 12.76% from its current price.
This outlook follows a period of significant underperformance, with the stock price having declined by over 11% in the past year.
Revenue and Profitability Analysis (2017–2024)
The company's financial performance has shown significant growth from 2017 to 2024.
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Revenue increased substantially, rising from $2.9 billion in 2017 to $8.4 billion in 2024.
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Operating profit demonstrated a strong recovery, growing from a loss of $136 million in 2017 to $2.49 billion in 2024. This marks a notable turnaround from the $2.48 billion loss in 2023, although it remains below the peak operating profit of over $6 billion achieved in 2022.
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Earnings per share (EPS) saw a remarkable increase, starting at $0.06 in 2017 and reaching $17.82 in 2024.
Future forecasts for the company project an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.22 and revenue of $1.81 billion.
While ZIM remains profitable, it is concerning to see a downward trend for both profits and revenue. I prefer to monitor this stock for now. This can also be a prelude for the wider economy. Is there a weakening global economy?
Market Outlook of S&P500 (18Aug25)
Technical observations:
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MACD - currently shows an uptrend. We can expect the top crossover to be completed in the coming few days.
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Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. The lines are converging, which represents a potential reversal of the current uptrend. However, the convergence is not yet complete, and we expect the uptrend to continue.
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Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.
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The CMF is positive at 0.03, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. However, it is on a downward trend, with most using the middle “0” line as the indicator for trend change.
Based on the daily interval, 21 indicators recommend a “buy” rating, and 0 indicators show a “sell” rating.
Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (from Grok)
Short-Term Outlook (August 18–22, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to continue its bearish trend into the coming week, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. The price could test support at 5,345.01 (early 2025 low) or drop further to 5,300 if selling pressure intensifies. Potential scenarios include: Bearish Case: A continued decline below 5,345.01 with high volume, possibly forming a Three Black Crows pattern, targeting 5,300 or lower.
Neutral Case: Stabilisation around 5,395.13 or 5,345.01, with a Doji or small-bodied candle indicating consolidation.
Bullish Reversal Case: A bounce from 5,345.01 with a bullish pattern (e.g., Hammer) and increasing volume, signalling a recovery toward 5,479.78 or 5,620.19.
Long-Term Outlook: The trend is bearish, with the S&P 500 in a correction phase that could mirror the early 2025 decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01. The current price of 5,395.13is below the 50 MA (5,629.83) and 200 MA (5,796.34), supporting this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 or lower if bearish momentum continues.
Actionable Insight: For the coming week, maintain a bearish bias. Monitor the price action around 5,345.01 (early 2025 low); a break below with high volume would favour a decline toward 5,300. A bounce with a bullish candlestick (e.g., mid-week August 20–21) and rising volume could indicate a reversal toward 5,479.78 or 5,620.19. Check daily patterns and volume trends, as the weekly close on August 22 will provide further clarity.
The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.
Combining the above, the market’s current uptrend should see a potential reversal in the coming days.
News and my thoughts from the past week (18Aug25)
Bank of America’s survey says that US stocks are overvalued. Do you agree?
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Large Cap Stocks are destroying Small Caps by the largest margin in history
Everything that ends up working in finance stems from patience and self-control. Everything that doesn’t work stems from instant gratification and FOMO. - Morgan Housel
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The monthly supply of new homes in the US surged to 9.8 months in June, the third-highest since 2008. This indicator measures how many months it would take to sell current builder inventory at the current sales pace. By comparison, the long-term median is 5.8 months. Since the 1960s, 5 of the 6 times builder supply reached this level, a recession followed. The only exception was 2022, when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. Homebuilders are struggling to sell inventory. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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July PPI inflation rises to 3.3%, above expectations of 2.5%. Core PPI inflation rose to 3.7%, also above expectations of 2.9%. Month-over-month PPI inflation is now at its hottest since March 2022. The Fed remains in a very difficult spot here. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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Building a new nuclear power plant typically takes 5-10 years from construction start to operation, per global data (median 6.3 years). In the US, recent examples like Vogtle Units 3-4 took ~10 years, plus 2-5 years for planning/licensing. Faster in China/South Korea (under 6 years). To counter rising CPI electricity, starting now could yield results by early 2030s, but regulations often extend timelines. - Grok
Texas data centers are projected to use 49 billion gallons of water this year, as the state faces a prolonged drought, per MorePerfectUnion. “Boycott American goods and stores” “Create home-grown versions of WhatsApp, YouTube etc.” Recent trends in India, as a response to Trump’s tariffs and other unfriendly actions.
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US Auto Insurance rates have increased by 94% over the last decade, far above the 35% increase in overall consumer prices. - Charlie Bilello
The US Dollar has devalued by a whopping 98.9% versus gold since 1971. The British Pound has lost 99.4% while the Euro would have lost 98.8% if existed since then.
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1 in 7 Americans report using Buy Now, Pay Later services like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay to get groceries, per MorePerfectUnion.
Retail Traders now account for more than 20% of total equity options volume, the most in history - BarChart
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My Investing Muse (18Aug25)
Layoffs & Closure news
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U.S. layoffs have surged to their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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US has hit its highest layoffs since COVID.
The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.
US debts
Here is some news about the US debts:
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The US Treasury posted a $291 billion budget deficit in July, the 2nd-largest deficit for any July on record. The gap marks a sharp reversal from June’s $27 billion budget surplus. This comes as government spending surged +9.7% YoY to $630 billion, the 2nd-highest since January. Meanwhile, revenue rose just +2.5% YoY to $338 billion, including $29.6 billion in tariff revenue. The deficit is now up +7.4% YoY, to $1.63 trillion FYTD, putting this year on track for the 3rd-largest deficit in history. The deficit spending crisis is worsening.
US consumer SERIOUS delinquencies are rising as if there is a DEBT crisis: Transitions into serious delinquency (mortgage, auto, student debt) materially jumped in Q2 2025 across all age groups. A similar rise occurred during the Financial Crisis. - X user Global Markets Investor
Margin debt just crossed $1 trillion in June for the first time since 2021. July could come in near $1.1 trillion. Risk appetite among retail investors is off the charts. *The amount of money that an investor borrows from its broker. - X user Global Markets Investor
$9.2 trillion in Treasuries mature in 2025, per First National Financial.
US large bankruptcies hit 446 YTD, the most since 2010, a year after the Financial Crisis. This is higher than in the full years 2021 and 2022. In July, there were 71 filings, the most since the 2020 CRISIS
My final thoughts
These data points paint a picture of a deteriorating fiscal and financial environment. The combination of a widening budget deficit, rising consumer delinquencies, and a spike in corporate bankruptcies suggests growing pressure on the U.S. economy. The large volume of maturing Treasury debt in 2025 adds another layer of complexity, as the government will need to refinance this debt in an environment of potentially higher interest rates and increased fiscal strain. Together, these trends indicate a challenging period ahead, with a heightened risk of financial instability.
Recent market activity appears to be driven by optimism from retail investors, despite some caution from institutional players. The unexpected Producer Price Index (PPI) data has unsettled the market, and institutional investors are increasingly net sellers, a trend that warrants careful consideration.
It is worth noting Berkshire Hathaway's recent actions as a point of reference. Their increase in cash reserves suggests that the company may not be finding attractive valuations in the current market, with the exception of their investment in UnitedHealth Group.
While there may still be opportunities for market growth, the U.S. economy faces significant affordability challenges due to high levels of debt and rising interest rates. General metrics like median income and the performance of the S&P 500, which includes global businesses and the highest earners, may not accurately reflect the financial health of the average American household.
Given these factors, it would be prudent to conduct thorough research. For now, it is advisable to avoid using leverage and credit for trading.
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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