The August jobs report confirms a significant labor market slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs created, the U-3 unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and broader unemployment rising to 8.1%.
Nominal GDP growth is decelerating, as indicated by the Aggregate Weekly Payrolls index, giving the Fed a green light for a September rate cut.
The yield curve is bull steepening, driven by falling 2-year rates; further steepening is likely but may be limited by Fed Funds futures pricing.
Despite weak job data, the 10-year rate may not fall much below 4% unless economic data worsens further, signaling limited downside for long-term yields
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments