Everyone's eyes on the price but what is it ? [Part 2]

I alluded previously that this is important but never said why. Now, take a step back and think about it. There is a spin off going to happen in about 45 trading days somewhere in Nov 2025. Each of the players will have a target spin off price, albeit a possibly different one.

Let's assume markets are efficient then. Well, if it's efficient, then the final spin off price is simply the weighted average of all target prices. Mathematically, number of shares * expected spin off price and you sum each player on the board, then find the average across the total number of shares.

Things are slightly more interesting now because we have part 1 and 2. And what part 1 tells us, assuming the market conditions remain relatively unchanged, would be that MA5 will be very close to the weighted average of the spin off price.

In my next post, I'll talk about how with part 1 and 2, how I view what the final target price is likely to be and how I work backwards to convince myself of the supposed momentum of the MA5 for this price to be achieved.