$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ It's always interesting when people show up acting like everyone is following their approach. Long term investors tend to outperform traders by a wide margin. Traders are out here talking about moving averages while we just hold through it. The short term crowd will get left behind. It's coming. No reason to jump off the plane before it takes off.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Market sentiment has soured toward datacenters, but this is still the best company among the major neoclouds. The company itself hasn't changed at 165 compared to when it was priced in the 230s recently.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ All the $200+ holders are gone now. At this point, people should be happy if it closes above $170 on Friday. Looks solid just below that level.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ These are moving in tandem. Nothing much to see here other than some aggressive hedge funds and big banks slogging it out with each other. Once the wrestling match ends, these are going straight up. Meanwhile, retail has zero say in it.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Nebius is back at the same price it was in April, before the big run to all-time highs over the summer. Fundamentals and the growth story have only improved since then. Coreweave has half the cash and 10x the debt. Under a $50B market cap this looks like an easy double to $400.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Bears are acting like this is the end of AI, but in reality we're in a war and more than half of inflation is coming from energy. AI is the reason we're staying afloat.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ I like the long-term prospects of Nebius, but I'm not sure what I'll do with my shares. I'm in at around $172, and if it gets to the $185 range, I might just sell. This thing swings so wildly that short-term profits are very tempting. Though if I sell and it goes to $250 or higher, I'll be crying into my cereal.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Compute supply is tight across the board and basically every company is chasing GPUs, so demand could get pretty intense before long. Short-term spot prices might reach $60-70 per MW. The FUD around CRWV should fade as spot prices move higher into 2027, since they can easily cover their debt and interest at those levels.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Jane Street and Citadel flushing out 2x leverage holders on FUD and fear. Did you think they would let you ride the next rally up without getting washed first? -50% on Nebius 2x long in a week. Turn off CNBC. The 10 year rate peaked and is dumping, and everyone switched back to a different doomer narrative around the KOSPI and AI bonds immediately. So many getting wrecked.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ I bought this stock at $22 and even at $60 it dropped 40% while everyone in the chat sold. A year later we touched $280, and now at $200 everyone is panicking again. This still looks like a blessing to me. I think this management can take it another 2-3x over the next 2 years.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Crude and yields are down. ASML and banks report tomorrow. That should give a tell-tale sign of the semi monopoly and how the economy is doing from a consumer standpoint. CPI and PPI won't be a surprise. TSMC is about to raise guidance. Last earnings season was upsetting despite blowout earnings. Q4 will be a movie.