$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 🕒 20 Oct 2025 🇳🇿 | VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) & SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD)
I’m tracking $GDX and $GLD as they carve out what could become one of the most powerful multi-year surges in modern markets. $GDX trades near $78.73 and $GLD around $389; every chart, flow, and macro signal still points higher.
📊 Technical Analysis: Decoding the Charts
I’m watching $GDX’s monthly inverse-hammer candle form above $78. If it closes here, it confirms a topping-path breakout, the same pattern that triggered 100 % plus runs from past cycle lows.
Fibonacci projections mark the path to $85 → $93.6 → $104 → $115.7 by 2027.
A retrace to the 0.786 Fib ($78.83) or $73–74 support zone would be my ideal reload region.
On the weekly and 4 H charts, Keltner and Bollinger bands are tightening, showing volatility compression before another continuation leg.
Momentum remains robust; RSI 73.5, ADX 46.9, and AroonUp > 70 confirm trend dominance and institutional momentum. $GDX’s 14-day average volume is up 46 % since April, confirming renewed fund inflows.
For $GLD, the 200-day MA ($315) hasn’t been breached since Nov 2023, that’s 23 months of uninterrupted strength. A daily bearish-engulfing candle suggests a healthy 2–3 % cool-off to $380–$385, but the structure stays parabolic.
🌍 Macro Backdrop: The Great Monetary Shift
The Morgan Stanley G3 bond-supply data shows sovereign issuance across the US, EU, and UK exploding over five years. Normally, that would lift long-end yields, yet they remain artificially flat.
Why? Treasury desks have swapped duration from long bonds into short notes, muting the term premium.
That’s engineered stability, not organic balance; and gold is calling the bluff.
Central banks, led by China and India, are buying aggressively; around 80 tonnes so far this year, while dollar reserves fall to decade lows. The rotation out of Treasuries and into hard assets is the foundation of this super-cycle.
Global ETF gold holdings now exceed 3,750 tonnes, their highest since 2020, while US M2 money supply has expanded 7.8 % YTD, reinforcing gold’s liquidity premium. The bond-market duration swap is creating a liquidity flush that distorts yield reality and accelerates gold’s credibility reset.
💡 Valuations Are Stretched to Breaking Point
Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio is flashing again. Investors are paying nearly 40 × earnings, levels last seen during the 1999 dot-com bubble, eerily similar to today’s AI-fuelled equity mania.
When valuations hit these extremes, capital searches for stores of value. Gold’s surge isn’t irrational; it’s the market re-pricing risk back into reality.
Gold now leads all major assets with a +65 % YTD total return and 4.0 × Sharpe ratio (Goldman Sachs data). Even Bitcoin (+16 %), Nasdaq (+18 %), and S&P 500 (+14 %) lag.
This isn’t speculation; it’s a monetary transition in motion.
📰 Catalysts and Sentiment
We’ve entered the mania phase; viral clips show queues worldwide for physical gold. ETF inflows confirm it, with $GLD taking in $1.2 B in September and India’s gold ETFs now exceeding $10 B AUM.
CTA funds are now scaling into gold’s breakout phase, mechanically amplifying each up-leg as trend models chase momentum.
Institutional participation remains light; CFTC net longs ≈ 1.7 ×, meaning the smart money’s still early.
Analysts are catching up; Goldman Sachs $4,900/oz, HSBC $5,000, BofA $4,900–$5,000 by 2026.
Even with gold’s spike to $4,179/oz, we’re still early in the structural repricing of real assets.
⚖️ Black Monday 1987: The Lesson That Never Leaves Me
I was working for a stockbroker in Perth, Western Australia on this day in 1987. I still remember the phones ringing off the hook and the fear in every voice.
That day, the Dow crashed 22.6 % and the S&P 500 plunged 20.5 %, the worst single-day drop in history. Circuit breakers were born from that chaos.
Gold stood tall then. Thirty-eight years later, markets again feel over-leveraged and fragile. When everything shakes, gold doesn’t ask questions; it answers them.
🔮 Watchlist and Strategy
I’m watching:
• $GDX support $73–74 → resistance $85 / $93.6 / $104 / $115 (target double by 2027)
• $GLD support $380–385 → upside $400 / $425 (mid-2026 target)
• Macro triggers: Fed pivot in December, US-China trade headlines, long-end yield drift, Treasury auctions
• Options positioning: Long $GDX Dec 80 C and $GLD Nov 400 C; short interest in $GDX ≈ 2 %, leaving room for institutional inflows
🧭 My Take: Trading the Monetary Reset
I’m not chasing noise; I’m positioning for a global collateral repricing that’s already underway.
Gold isn’t moving out of fear; it’s repricing the true cost of money in a world where debt, issuance, and leverage have outpaced credibility.
I’m treating gold and $GDX as both offensive positioning and intelligent hedging; a structural play that protects while it compounds.
When others hedge reactively, I hedge proactively, using exposure that participates in the upside while insulating against systemic mispricing.
$GDX remains my high-beta leverage to that theme. I see every consolidation as a recalibration before the next structural advance.
I’m positioning through this market reckoning, not reacting to it. When liquidity distorts truth, gold restores it; and that reset is what separates traders from investors who recognise the cycle shift early.
In a world leveraged 40 × earnings, gold isn’t speculation; it’s valuation discipline priced in ounces, not multiples.
I’m staying long, hedged, and data-driven until the macro breaks the pattern.
You know what to do.
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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
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