$D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$ $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ I’ve watched enough tape over the years to know when headlines spark a frenzy faster than reality can catch up. Today’s chatter about the Trump administration’s supposed plan to take equity stakes in quantum firms like IONQ, RGTI, QBTS and QUBT fits that pattern perfectly.
The Wall Street Journal floated whispers of Commerce Department talks, at least $10 million per firm in funding for shares, before Reuters snapped back with a flat denial: “No active negotiations underway.” That gap between rumour and rebuttal triggered the volatility you see below.
Quantum Computing Stocks Are on a Wild Ride, policy chatter turns small floats into rocket fuel.
⚙️ Price Action Breakdown: Riding the Headlines
📊 QBTS +20.5 % intraday to $41.33 before settling at $34.40, still above its 40-DMA ($31.20). Reclaim $35.50 = path to the $38–40 liquidity shelf; lose it and we rotate back to the low 30s. Volume ≈ 3 × average but fading into the close, which signals profit-taking, not accumulation.
📈 IONQ +15 % premarket to $83.83 → $55.45. RSI 72 → 58; watch for bullish divergence if the 50-DMA ($48) holds.
⚡ RGTI & QUBT | RGTI +22 % to $53.54 → $36.06 (testing 20-DMA $34.50). QUBT +14 % to $21.23 → $14.87 (coiling above 200-DMA $12).
Headline flush; reaction beats prediction.
💸 Options Flow: Institutional Fingerprints
Here’s what the tape’s really saying; smart money hedged both edges.
• $1.03 M buy – QBTS 19 C 31 Oct 25 (deep ITM, synthetic stock setup)
• $257 K block – QBTS 31.5 P 24 Oct 25 (short-dated protection)
• $902 K buy – QBTS 41 C 20 Feb 26 (long-dated convex bet on policy follow-through)
Put/Call ≈ 0.4 but put IV 85 % > call IV 72 %; funds are pricing volatility, not euphoria.
Three sides funded; smart money hedging headline tails.
🌎 Macro & Policy Backdrop
The Intel 10 % stake for grants set the precedent. Add the Pentagon’s “golden share” in MP Materials and you see a template: Washington anchors strategic tech. Quantum fits that national-security playbook.
🇨🇳 China = $15 B Quantum National Lab by 2025.
🇪🇺 EU Quantum Flagship adds €1 B 2025–2030.
🇺🇸 CHIPS Act 2.0 rumours include Quantum carve-outs.
Commerce official denies active talks; the headline that triggered profit-taking.
📉 Fundamentals That Actually Anchor the Story
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) → €10 M Advantage2 order with Swiss Quantum Technology SA = real revenue contract. TTM rev ≈ $15 M (+178 % YoY).
IONQ → $2 B Heights Capital funding; Q3 rev $22 M (+83 % YoY); gate fidelity 99.99 %.
RGTI → $1.8 M quarterly rev; $571 M cash runway via UK grants.
QUBT → $61 K rev but $750 M private placement fuel for speculative moves.
🚨 Catalysts & Risks to Track
Next up: Nov Fed minutes (rate path signal), IONQ Q3 earnings (mid-Nov), any Commerce update.
Liquidity razor-thin; QBTS avg vol 15 M but true float ≈ 2 M. IV extreme → expect post-rumour crush. Size 1–2 % max per name, defined risk only.
🚀 Playbook: Trade the Echo, Not the Mirage
I’m watching QBTS Nov25 35C spreads ($2.50 debit) → target $4.50 on policy confirmation.
IONQ Dec25 60C ($3.20) → stop $2.00.
I trail all stock exposure below the 40-DMA. No hero positions overnight; volatility is the edge, not the enemy.
💬 If equity stakes lock in, does annealing (QBTS) out-scale trapped-ion (IONQ)? And how would you structure a butterfly to catch the IV crush after confirmation?
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