Playing & Profiting from Alphabet's Q3 Earnings: Straightforward Guide

Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations:

• Alphabet's Q3 2025 results are expected to surpass market consensus.

• Revenue forecast is revised up to $86.0 billion, above the consensus of $85.0 billion.

• A one-time legal expense of $3.9 billion is anticipated, resulting in EPS coming in below market expectations.

• Search revenue growth is projected to remain stable at 12% YoY, while Cloud revenue is forecast to grow 32% YoY.

• Q4 outlook is also optimistic, with projected revenue and EPS of $93.8 billion and $2.59, respectively, exceeding expectations.

How to Evaluate Alphabet's Earnings Expectations:

• The Generative AI strategy is showing significant results and gaining momentum, indicating very strong operational performance.

• The stock's short-term direction will likely depend more on Q4 guidance and a comparative performance analysis with Meta and Microsoft.

• Expected earnings volatility is ±6.8%, with a projected range of $242 to $278.

Trading Strategy:

• Strong core business and lack of major negative catalysts make a breakdown below the range unlikely. Selling put options is viable.

• Sell puts ahead of the earnings release and close the positions at the market open on earnings day.

• Shareholders can sell out-of-the-money calls to generate additional premium income.

Strike & Expiration Reference:

• Covered Call: $GOOGL 20251031 285.0 CALL$  (Win Rate: 86%)

• Short Put: $GOOGL 20251031 240.0 PUT$  (Win Rate: 85%)