<Part 1 of 5> Economic Calendar for week 27Oct25

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week.

Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25

Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly.

Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators

The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision.

Forecast: A decrease from the previous rate of 4.25% to 4.0% is anticipated by the market. Any deviation from this expectation could introduce market volatility. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, will also be announced, serving as a critical reference point for future interest rate decisions.

Economic Growth and Sentiment

Announcements will provide updates on overall economic performance and consumer outlook:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Q3: The forecast stands at 3.0%, a notable decrease from the prior quarter’s 3.8%.
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board - CB): A forecasted figure of 93.9 suggests a marginal decline in consumer confidence from the previous reading of 92.4.

Manufacturing and Trade

Indicators for the manufacturing sector will be released, pointing toward potential contraction:

Durable Goods Orders: The latest announcement will follow the previous reading of -2.7%.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - October: The forecast of 49.7 suggests a contraction in the overall manufacturing sector (a reading below 50.0).
Chicago PMI - October: A forecast of 42.0 implies a continuation of contraction in the Chicago manufacturing sector.

Housing and Energy

Key data for the housing market and energy sector are scheduled for release:

New Home Sales: The forecast is 710,000 units, representing a significant drop from the prior figure of 800,000 units.
Crude Oil Inventories: The latest announcement follows a previous dip of 0.961 million barrels. This data will offer insights into current consumption and production trends.

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FOMC Minutes Amid Shutdown! Is Fed Ready to Go Further?

Traders await minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting later in the week, while the federal government shutdown entered its sixth day. Last month, the central bank reduced its benchmark rate by 25 bps. Powell said in September that the Fed was facing a "challenging situation", noting that near-term risks to inflation were tilted to the upside and those to employment leaning downside. Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday. -------- Do you expect another 25 bps in October? How will market move this week? With multiple stocks surging, is market entering a stage of irrational exuberance?

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