My Investing Muse (27Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data

GM all DM cm you reman eh EV can m can be can cm can end at UK I of glass can be good

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The U.S. government shutdown continues to ripple through the economy. Since entering shutdown mode on October 1, select federal agencies have halted normal operations, delaying data releases and curtailing government contracts and project spending. Key economic indicators—like employment and manufacturing reports—are proving hard to release on time, reducing market visibility. That said, CPI data is still slated for release on October 24, thanks to the Labor Department recalling some staff to compile it (to avoid unduly influencing the Fed). Meanwhile, several state economies are showing contraction signals, with heavyweights like California and New York nearing inflection points.Tariff threats are reigniting tensions. Trump posted on social

Yesterday was one of those whirlwind days where everything blurred together — errands to run, tasks to finish, and time slipping away faster than I could catch it. By midday, my focus was so scattered that I completely forgot I even had a Tiger Brokers account. It wasn’t until the evening, when the pace of the day finally slowed, that the thought suddenly resurfaced like a forgotten to-do list item floating to the top of my mind: “Wait... my stocks!” I opened the Tiger Brokers app and began scrolling through my portfolio, not expecting much after such a long, busy day. To my quiet relief, the numbers were green. SOXS, TLT, and TLH were behind the gain. SOXS had made a decent move upward, while TLT and TLH were gently positive — nothing huge, but enough to tilt the balance in my favor. iSha

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ While it hasn't surged in this wave of semiconductor FOMO, it perfectly embodies the old adage: "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." Recent Microsoft research offers eye-opening insights from direct feedback of 300 CIOs. The standout data lies in software spending: 2025 IT budgets remain steady at +3.6%, with software leading the charge at +3.8%; the 2026 outlook shows overall budgets accelerating slightly to +3.8%, and software to +3.9%. Microsoft's steady, "slow-burner" growth—averaging +4.1% over the past decade—hits the sweet spot.For MSFT, the biggest prize is GenAI.AI/ML remains firmly atop CIOs' priority list, with hyperscalers emerging as preferred partners and Microsoft leading the pack. Research in

The upcoming week will be pivotal for sentiment, as markets balance between monetary optimism and valuation fatigue. Let us examine the key dynamics. --- 1. Policy Outlook — Will the Fed Cut Again in October? A second consecutive 25 bps cut in October is possible but not guaranteed. Arguments for a cut: The government shutdown, now in its sixth day, may dampen short-term GDP growth. Leading indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and consumer sentiment have softened. Real yields remain elevated, tightening financial conditions despite prior easing. Arguments against a cut: Powell explicitly noted “upside risks to inflation.” Core PCE remains sticky around 2.9%—3.0%, above the Fed’s comfort zone. Cutting too aggressively could undermine the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility and trig

Good Luck to the winning.. 

Bullish for ai shares still

Yes another 25bps in Oct... Slow and steady wins the race. If everything is within expectations, market goes up. Sentiment is not exuberance yet. Fear and greed index is only neutral 53. Fear and greed index is a reflection of market sentiment and leans towards institutional more than retail. Big money is still hiding somewhere.  The market is going up in the short to mid term, or at least until fear and greed index goes to greed or extreme greed. Any dips will be shallow and bought up quickly.

Equities continue to hit all-time highs despite dismal consumer sentiment, rising loan delinquencies, and a faltering jobs market. Headline GDP growth is robust, but is primarily being driven by the surge in tech spending due to the AI revolution and large fiscal deficit spending. However, there is considerable weakness in many other core parts of the economy, including residential and commercial real estate.

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The current setup in global markets is delicately poised — and investors are right to weigh whether policy easing is nearing its limit and whether sentiment has turned euphoric. Let us examine the scenario systematically: --- 1. Probability of Another 25 bps Cut in October The September rate cut (−25 bps) marked a cautious pivot by the Federal Reserve, intended to support slowing growth while acknowledging residual inflation pressures. Current data mix: Core inflation remains sticky (~3.1–3.3%), while labour-market indicators are softening (rising jobless claims, slower payroll additions). Fed officials’ rhetoric: Recent speeches have leaned data-dependent rather than overtly dovish. Market pricing: Fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 40–45% probability of another 25 bps cut in Oct

The market right now is walking a tightrope. The U.S. economy is still stronger than many thought it would be, with low unemployment and solid consumer spending, but inflation hasn’t fully gone away. That means the Federal Reserve can’t yet declare victory. Rate cuts are likely on the horizon, but the timing is tricky — cut too soon, and inflation could flare back up. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is weaker, with sluggish growth, so the European Central Bank is being extra cautious. If the Fed moves faster than the ECB, the dollar could strengthen, which adds another twist for global investors. So how do you play this? The smart buys mix defense with selective growth. U.S. Treasuries and gold are attractive safe havens — they work whether the economy lands softly or hits turbul

Investors Are Paying a Premium for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ Not Because They're Making Money, But Because They're Spending ItListen up, folks—when investors shell out extra for Nvidia and Oracle, it's not about the profits rolling in today. It's about the cash they're burning through like there's no tomorrow. That's the hallmark of a classic cycle: when an industry hits that "strategically irreplaceable" sweet spot, capital rewards the spenders first, not the earners. The AI investment loop is so damn resilient because this "spending makes sense" vibe is holding strong—for now.Over the past year, the flow of AI capital has flipped on its head, hard.Phase one? Software frenzy—big models, agents, C

Maybe it is a good thing for the stock market as there are no more govt reports during shutdown. Now the sentiment for more rate cuts is still high.

Fed FOMC minutes amid shutdown, and we are hearing report that Fed is set to drive global rate cuts as Europe shifts to pause. Market consensus of two more rate cuts before year-end remain in play, but will FOMC minutes hold this consensus or Fed is ready to go further. Here is a refined view on whether the consensus of two more Fed rate cuts by year-end is likely — and how the shutdown complicates things: What the Fed just signaled & market expectations At the September meeting, the Fed cut rates 25 bps and signaled two more cuts this year, bringing the dot plot median to a 3.50%–3.75% terminal range by end-2025. Market pricing (via rate futures) currently implies a high probability (~89%) of a 25 bps cut in October and further easing in December. In the FOMC minutes from July, severa