<Part 5 of 5> My investing muse (27Oct25)

KYHBKO
10-26

My Investing Muse (27Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

  • The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN

  • A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales

  • Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street

Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data remains available. The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st. Additionally, continuing claims rose +9% from the prior week, to 9,430, the highest in 3.5 years. The government shutdown is in full swing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US employers have announced 946,426 job cuts in 2025, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the 2nd-largest total since the Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 times have seen higher layoffs - X user Global Markets Investor

Over 10% of US small firms said in September their most important problem is poor sales. In the past, it has been a leading indicator for rising unemployment US small firms employ 45.9% of American workers, or ~59 million people. - X user Global Markets Investor

Germany, once the industrial powerhouse, has lost a quarter million MANUFACTURING jobs in 5 years. It now makes only 4 million cars — fewer than what China exports. Stop the war with Russia; get rid of climate change hysteria. Economy should be the #1 priority. - X user S.L. Kanthan

First Brands BANKRUPTCY shakes credit markets: The collapse WIPED OUT $4 billion in leveraged loans held across ~80 CLOs from Blackstone, and others. The sudden failure is a major warning for the broader credit market and leveraged loan sector.

Some US corporate bonds are CRASHING: Natural gas company, New Fortress Energy CRASHED. A subprime auto lender, Tricolor filed for bankruptcy. Auto-parts supplied, First Brands COLLAPSED. Investors lost +60% in EACH CASE.- X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some of the news about debts, closures and bankruptcies.

My final thoughts

Recent reporting from Reuters indicates that China and the United States held productive discussions in Malaysia, suggesting a positive trajectory for de-escalating recent trade tensions. Both nations have expressed optimism regarding a favourable outcome from these engagements.

The coming week is poised to introduce significant, market-moving news. Key events that will shape market sentiment include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (scheduled for Wednesday, October 29) and Friday’s update on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (scheduled for Friday, October 31). The PCE data is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and will be a critical consideration in determining future monetary policy adjustments.

In light of increasing concerns regarding affordability, the Federal Reserve’s expanding debt levels, and rising corporate delinquency rates, a prudent and cautionary stance is recommended, with consideration for strategic hedging.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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FOMC Minutes Amid Shutdown! Is Fed Ready to Go Further?
Traders await minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting later in the week, while the federal government shutdown entered its sixth day. Last month, the central bank reduced its benchmark rate by 25 bps. Powell said in September that the Fed was facing a "challenging situation", noting that near-term risks to inflation were tilted to the upside and those to employment leaning downside. Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday. -------- Do you expect another 25 bps in October? How will market move this week? With multiple stocks surging, is market entering a stage of irrational exuberance?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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