My Investing Muse (27Oct25)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
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The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN
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A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales
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Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street
Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data remains available. The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st. Additionally, continuing claims rose +9% from the prior week, to 9,430, the highest in 3.5 years. The government shutdown is in full swing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US employers have announced 946,426 job cuts in 2025, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the 2nd-largest total since the Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 times have seen higher layoffs - X user Global Markets Investor
Over 10% of US small firms said in September their most important problem is poor sales. In the past, it has been a leading indicator for rising unemployment US small firms employ 45.9% of American workers, or ~59 million people. - X user Global Markets Investor
Germany, once the industrial powerhouse, has lost a quarter million MANUFACTURING jobs in 5 years. It now makes only 4 million cars — fewer than what China exports. Stop the war with Russia; get rid of climate change hysteria. Economy should be the #1 priority. - X user S.L. Kanthan
First Brands BANKRUPTCY shakes credit markets: The collapse WIPED OUT $4 billion in leveraged loans held across ~80 CLOs from Blackstone, and others. The sudden failure is a major warning for the broader credit market and leveraged loan sector.
Some US corporate bonds are CRASHING: Natural gas company, New Fortress Energy CRASHED. A subprime auto lender, Tricolor filed for bankruptcy. Auto-parts supplied, First Brands COLLAPSED. Investors lost +60% in EACH CASE.- X user Global Markets Investor
The above are some of the news about debts, closures and bankruptcies.
My final thoughts
Recent reporting from Reuters indicates that China and the United States held productive discussions in Malaysia, suggesting a positive trajectory for de-escalating recent trade tensions. Both nations have expressed optimism regarding a favourable outcome from these engagements.
The coming week is poised to introduce significant, market-moving news. Key events that will shape market sentiment include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (scheduled for Wednesday, October 29) and Friday’s update on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (scheduled for Friday, October 31). The PCE data is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and will be a critical consideration in determining future monetary policy adjustments.
In light of increasing concerns regarding affordability, the Federal Reserve’s expanding debt levels, and rising corporate delinquency rates, a prudent and cautionary stance is recommended, with consideration for strategic hedging.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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